Friday, September 24, 2010

NFL Week Three, from Vegas

Another winning week last week getting me to 5-1 in the NFL so far this year. Here is what I like on Sunday, road teams and chalk are the themes:

Pittsburgh -2.5 at Tampa Bay
As mentioned, I'm actively trying to avoid getting involved in Steelers' games because of my rooting interest, but as with the first two weeks, there is real value here even though Pittsburgh is favored for the first time this season. Charlie Batch gets the start this week and it's quite possible the Steelers will start four different quarterbacks during weeks 2-5. Batch is going to be the quintessential game manager in this one, but I actually expect him to have some success throwing the ball. Tampa Bay quarterback Josh Freeman is very gifted, but like Matt Ryan and Vince Young, he is going to be in for a tough afternoon against the NFL's best defense. Tampa is getting better, but the 2-0 start came against Cleveland and Carolina two of the worst teams in the league. I see the Steelers winning this one by double digits.

Cincinnati -3 at Carolina
Staying on the Bengals again this week as well, as they head to Carolina. Cincinnati has some injuries on the defensive side of the ball, but they are fortunate to run into a Panthers team that is already changing quarterbacks two weeks into the season. Golden Domer Jimmy Clausen takes over for Matt Moore. It smacks of desperation from head coach John Fox who probably doesn't survive after this season. Cincinnati will load the box to stop DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart and dare Clausen to beat them. A steady dose of Cedric Benson should be the answer for the visitors. I'll lay the three.

Washington -3.5 at St. Louis
I really like Sam Bradford and if nothing else, the first two weeks of the season have proven how important quarterbacks are in this league. But young qbs rarely have consistent success and I'm sure defensive coordinator Jim Haslett will have some tricks ready to go for Bradford. I don't love the Skins because I don't think they have enough weapons on offense, but Donovan McNabb seems to have settled in and I still think Clinton Portis is a useful back. Washington let one get away last week against the Texans. I don't think they'll let this one get away.

I'm going to take a lot at a few other games tomorrow and see if there is anything else I like. Hopefully I'll have my college picks, in abbreviated form, up early tomorrow. You can always follow my picks in real time on twitter @hammerspeaks.


William said...

What is the price we could get for steelers -10? Might be the way to go

The Hammer said...

Yea, definitely would have been....