Saturday, September 18, 2010

NFL: Cashin' in on Week 2

I figure if I go 3-0 every week I won't have to worry about spamming the blog out to find readers. If I go 3-0 every week there are a lot of things I won't have to worry about any more. Ain't gonna happen, but let's see what we have for this week.

One common mistake after the first game of the season is for people to feel like what they saw in week 1 is exactly what they are going to get from that team every week. I think we can take advantage of that here in week 2 as some lines have moved based on last week.

Cincinnati +2.5 vs. Baltimore
A week ago Cincinnati would have been favored in this game, but they looked terrible in the first half against New England and the game was over. Opportunity. Both these teams expect to have success through the air this year and both feel they have a quarterback that can make that happen. Joe Flacco is seen as one of the emerging stars in the league, but I think Carson Palmer will prove he is still the better of the two. Cincinnati has the better secondary and I think that will be the difference here.  Cedric Benson ran for over 100 yards in both games between these divisional opponents last year and after Palmer softens the Ravens up with the pass, I think Benson will have another big day on the ground. I expect the Bengals to win this one outright at home.
Fact: Since 2004 Carson Palmer is 8-3 against the Ravens.

Pittsburgh +5.5 at Tennessee
As mentioned, I don't like recommending a play on the Steelers because of my rooting interest but this line is really off the mark. The Steelers defense looked fantastic last week in shutting down Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Troy Polamalu and Aaron Smith are back and Lawrence Timmons' performance may mean the Steelers have three bowl linebackers. Chris Johnson is a beast, but he has failed to gain 70 yards in either of his two games against the Steelers. Pittsburgh will fill the box again on Sunday and make Vince Young beat them--and I don't think he will.  I don't see the Titans scoring more than 17 points which means the Steelers only need 12 to cover. Dennis Dixon, 2-0 ATS as a starter, will again be running the offense and I expect (hope?) to see some plays designed to get him on the edge. I like the Steelers and I would put a few nickels on the money line as well as I expect Pittsburgh not only to cover, but to win.
Fact: Chris Hoke will start for an injured Casey Hampton at NT. The Steelers are 15-0 in the regular season when Hoke starts.

Dallas -7 vs. Chicago
Dallas lost to Washington last week even though they dominated the game in ever statistical category. The play call at the end of the first half which resulted in a Redskins touchdown will go down as the dumbest of the year. Chicago, with four turnovers and nine penalties, wasn't much better. They would have lost to Detroit were it not for the ridiculous non-touchdown call on Calvin Johnson's catch in the last two minutes. The difference is the Cowboys are actually a pretty good team, Chicago isn't. I expect the Cowboys to rebound in a big way at home. Getting two starters back on the offensive line will be a big help. Look for Romo to go downfield early and get the home crowd involved. Jay Cutler is still way too careless with the ball. I expect Dallas to win by at least two touchdowns.
Fact: The Bears haven't gone 2-0 since they were in the Super Bowl.

I'll have a late game pick on twitter @hammerspeaks tomorrow.


Bmurfree said...

Two out of three ain't bad. Never back a jerk....Jerry Jones. Look at Cutler since he has a decent Of. Cord.

The Hammer said...

Thanks again for the hospitality. Great to meet you.

The Hammer said...

Good stuff. Good start to the year with the picks.

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