A busy day on the airwaves. Dave Bryan of SteelersDepot.com and I cut Episode 101, Season 2 of The Terrible Podcast this morning giving our thoughts on last night's opening round of the NFL Draft and previewing rounds 2-3 tonight. Suffice it to say we scored the Steelers' effort the same as our podcast number--101. Lots of good stuff in this one which runs about 40 minutes. You can find us/subscribe on iTunes or you can listen here.
I also managed to talk Pirates with Charlie Wilmoth on our Bucs Dugout Podcast. A look at the latest with the Bucs and a preview of the series with the Atlanta Braves that starts tonight. You can catch it here on BucsDugout.com.
And a programming note. I will be broadcasting live tonight from Steelers headquarters on the South Side from 8-10 pm as the NFL draft continues. I will also be live from 2 pm tomorrow until the end of the draft. The Steelers have four picks in the seventh and final round so there will be plenty going on right until the bitter end. You can listen on 970 ESPN in Pittsburgh or on the iHeartRadio app on your smart phone.
I will also be hosting the Joe Bendel Show on 970 ESPN Monday-Thursday of next week from 4-7. Tune in or call in and join the fun.
Friday, April 27, 2012
Monday, April 9, 2012
Clint Hurdle, You Outsmarted Charlie Manuel, But...
The article I posted over at BucsDugout.com this morning.
Dear Clint,
Long time no talk. Congratulations on a fantastic opening to the season. The home opener was not the most rousing offensive display, with 27 outs after two opening singles, but the pitching was great on both sides and it was a beautiful day at the game's most beautiful park.
Then the weekend brought great excitement and more of what we have come to expect from your teams in your short tenure as manager here. They play hard until the last out. Back-to-back walk-off wins will certainly invigorate the fanbase, and I imagine it made for an enjoyable plane ride as you embarked on your difficult nine-game West Coast swing. Nobody needs to remind you that opening the season against three former Cy Young Award winners in the first four games is no piece of cake, and going 2-1 in the first three is a great way to begin.
Knowing you, you'll want to credit the players and coaches for this weekend's success, as you always do. And you're right, the players are always going to be primarily responsible for the wins and losses. But you pushed all the right buttons this weekend. Really. Like Midas. Lineup changes, pinch-hitters, pinch-runners, the occasional sacrifice bunt (which I couldn't even argue with) and the bullpen usage all worked out almost perfectly. Super job.
And that brings me to my point. Or maybe I should call it my plea.
Clint, you had a front-row seat to what some would call very questionable, and critics might call downright terrible, managing this weekend. And it came from a manager who not only won a major league-best 102 games just last season, but also has a World Series Championship on his resume.
I don't mean to pick on Charlie Manuel, because what he did this weekend happens throughout the game. But I'm pointing it out to you in hopes that you rise above it and take a different approach this year. And since you saw how dramatically it impacted things this weekend, I'm thinking you will.
As you know, the Phillies made some changes in the offseason. Most notably, they signed Red Sox free agent closer Jonathan Papelbon to a crazy-big contract worth $50 million over four years. Yep, they took a lot of grief for it, but that's what they did. And once the ink dried, the money was effectively spent, so that's what they've got. I figure if you're going to pay a young man that kind of money, you are better to put him to work, right? That's why I'm confused.
Papelbon has been in the majors since 2005 and took over the Sox closer role in 2006. Since then, he's been one of the best in the business, as you know. He was a bit off in 2010, but bounced back nicely last season and was rewarded with the big bucks from the Phils. The last four years, Papelbon has pitched 64.1, 67, 68 and 69 innings.
So on Thursday, Opening Day, you couldn't have been surprised when your counterpart Manuel pulled Roy Halladay after eight spectacular innings (the guy's a machine, isn't he?) and called on his $50 Million Man. 10 pitches, three batters and one strikeout later, it was over. The Phils won 1-0 and the $50 Million Man got his first save. I'm sure GM Ruben Amaro and Phillies fans envisioned 50 more games finishing the same way this season.
After Friday's off day, you and the Phillies got into another nail-biting pitchers' duel on Saturday. I bet there was a sigh of relief when your team finally got its first run of the season in the sixth to tie the game 1-1. Going to the seventh, with both teams going into the bullpen, I felt like you had an advantage, but of course, they did have the $50 Million Man.
This time, Manuel used four relievers to get through the seventh, eighth and ninth, but he didn't use his $50 Million Man, because there wasn't a save situation. I loved the way you used two relievers to get through the seventh and eighth and then turned to your closer, Joel Hanrahan, to pitch the ninth. You knew there was no save to be had (it's really just a contrived stat, don't you think?), so it made sense to use your best reliever to get the next outs and put the Bucs in the best position to win. (I'm a little tired of Herm Edwards on ESPN saying "You play to win the game," but we all agree with the point. Fire with your best. Good choice.)
By the way, you know what's funny? Your guy Hanrahan is a lot like the $50 Million Man, if obviously not quite as accomplished. Hanny is 30 years old. He's been in the majors since 2007, but did not really become an elite reliever until last year, when you gave him the job. Great call! He was exceptional last year. And the great thing for you guys is that he comes relatively cheap at $4.1 million this year and is also under team control next year. Can you say relative value? The last three years he has pitched 68.2, 69.2 and 64 innings, almost identical numbers to those of the $50 Million Man.
I digress. Back to Saturday night's game. Hanrahan did his job in the top of the ninth, but your Pirates were unable to push a run across in their half, so on to some extra baseball, still tied 1-1. The people waiting for the fireworks with little kids probably weren't that happy, but I know I was riveted. I was ready for the chess match. You turned to veteran Juan Cruz, who did his job, and the game moved to the bottom of the 10th.
I assumed Manuel would turn to the $50 Million Man at this point. He'd already used four relievers and his options were pretty limited. Of course, I was wrong. It was a long offseason ,and I had forgotten the edict that closers are only to be used in save situations. Being the road team in extra innings, Manuel was going to wait until his team got a lead to use the $50 Million Man. So he turned to Joe Blanton. (I feel like I should be on Twitter and tweet BLOLanton right now.)
I'm guessing your boys in the dugout were licking their chops. Rod Barajas crushed that ball that missed going out by about three inches, but it was high comedy watching him lug himself and that Steinway safely into second. I'll bet you never pinch-ran a catcher for another catcher before! Another crafty move. And while your men made it more interesting than I wanted (how 'bout a fly ball, Clemente, Jr.?), it was great to see them pull out the 2-1 walk-off win, and on an infield single, no less! Another first for you, I assume.
That night, as I was getting ready to go to sleep, all I could envision was Manuel, drinking a beer on his office, cursing himself for not using the $50 Million Man.
But you know what, Clint, maybe it's me who's crazy, 'cause we saw Manuel do the same damn thing on Sunday. Great job by your men to come back from 4-1 down, but I couldn't believe Manuel used his bullpen the way he did. You remember in the eighth inning when you were down 4-3 and the Phils were already on their third reliever? Long weekend, I know, but there were two outs and you guys had guys on first and second. Their lefty Antonio Bastardo was on the hill, and you had lefty Pedro Alvarez coming up. I liked your decision to pinch-hit with right-handed rookie Matt Hague there even though Pedro had homered earlier. Showed some cojones. Play to win the game, right?
I remembered closers are usually only supposed to pitch one inning, but I figured Manuel would want this game badly, particularly after losing such a tough one last night. I mean, the $50 Million Man didn't pitch Friday or Saturday and the Phils have an off day on Tuesday. If not then for a four-out save, when? Pretty high-leverage situation too, don't you think?
Well, we know what happened. Bastardo stayed in the game and Hague, The Hit Collector, came through with his first major-league knock, tying the game at four. Then it was a replay of Saturday night. You knew your team would not have a save situation playing at home -- not that that would matter of course, you just wanted to use your best pitcher to get some outs. Call on Joel! And he did the job.
Cue the bottom of the ninth and no save situation, and Manuel turned to some guy named David Herndon. Casey McGehee doubled, Andrew McCutchen had a great at bat, and you guys got win number two.
But Clint, sorry to ramble on, there is one thing I need to point out to you. Remember last year when you guys were tied for first place in the NL Central on July 26 with a 53-47 record and the Pirates were the talk of the baseball world? You played that 19-inning game that night against the Braves and got jobbed by Jerry Meals and lost 4-3? Yeah, you didn't use Joel Hanrahan that game.
Yep, your relievers did do a great job in that 19-inning game. But then the next night you had to go extra innings again. You lost 2-1 in 10 innings. You kept Hanrahan in the pen that game too. You did use Hanny the following day and even brought him in for a four-out save, but your team would go on to lose the next 10 in a row, and you ended up using Hanrahan three times in that stretch just to get him work. In the middle of that losing streak, in an extra-inning game in Philadelphia, you chose not to use him and the team lost 6-5 after being ahead 5-3 going to the bottom of the eighth.
In fact, I looked it up. Over the course of last year, your team went 1-5 in extra-inning road games. You used Joel Hanrahan in only two of those games. They were both save situations where he blew the lead, which led directly to the games going to extra innings. It happens, no problem there. But in the other four road extra-inning contests last year, you did exactly what Manuel did this weekend and left your best reliever in the bullpen. You lost on every occasion. That doesn't even count games in which you were tied or ahead in the eighth or ninth and ended up losing while your man Hanrahan went unused. There were a bunch of those too.
I know you are concerned about your players' health, but overwork didn't drive the decision in any of those four instances, just like it didn't for Manuel on Sunday. Instead, a dumb statistic apparently drove the decision. Why would Manuel manage for a stat when he is already managing the $50 Million Man? His Man got paid, and Manuel should now use him when it serves the team best.
You may have to deal with egos, but you're good at that and Hanrahan seems like a really good guy. I know it isn't about trying to get him 45 saves, it's about trying to get the Pirates 80, 85, 90 wins. You need to use him like you did this weekend. You need your best pitchers to pitch the most innings and also hopefully the most important innings. Your men look like they might be slightly offensively-challenged this year, so pitching is going to matter more than ever.
Clint, the old cliche that you have forgotten more about baseball than I'll ever know probably applies in spades here. But I'm thinking Manuel may have cost his team a game or two this weekend because you managed the pants off him at PNC Park. I just hope that when those games get played in Citizens Bank Ballpark or any other of the road venues you visit this year, the roles aren't reversed because you base your decision-making on a silly statistic. Use the best pitchers available to get the outs that give your team the best chance to win. The other way didn't work for you last year and it didn't work for Mr. Manuel this weekend.
Think Goose Gossage in his prime. Joel Hanrahan certainly is physically able to pitch 80 to 85 innings. That is how you need to use your $4.1 Million Man. And let's be realistic, he likely is going to be someone else's $30-40 Million Man soon enough.
I look forward to seeing you when you're back in town, Congratulations again on a good start, and best of luck out west.
Best,
David
Dear Clint,
Long time no talk. Congratulations on a fantastic opening to the season. The home opener was not the most rousing offensive display, with 27 outs after two opening singles, but the pitching was great on both sides and it was a beautiful day at the game's most beautiful park.
Then the weekend brought great excitement and more of what we have come to expect from your teams in your short tenure as manager here. They play hard until the last out. Back-to-back walk-off wins will certainly invigorate the fanbase, and I imagine it made for an enjoyable plane ride as you embarked on your difficult nine-game West Coast swing. Nobody needs to remind you that opening the season against three former Cy Young Award winners in the first four games is no piece of cake, and going 2-1 in the first three is a great way to begin.
Knowing you, you'll want to credit the players and coaches for this weekend's success, as you always do. And you're right, the players are always going to be primarily responsible for the wins and losses. But you pushed all the right buttons this weekend. Really. Like Midas. Lineup changes, pinch-hitters, pinch-runners, the occasional sacrifice bunt (which I couldn't even argue with) and the bullpen usage all worked out almost perfectly. Super job.
And that brings me to my point. Or maybe I should call it my plea.
Clint, you had a front-row seat to what some would call very questionable, and critics might call downright terrible, managing this weekend. And it came from a manager who not only won a major league-best 102 games just last season, but also has a World Series Championship on his resume.
I don't mean to pick on Charlie Manuel, because what he did this weekend happens throughout the game. But I'm pointing it out to you in hopes that you rise above it and take a different approach this year. And since you saw how dramatically it impacted things this weekend, I'm thinking you will.
As you know, the Phillies made some changes in the offseason. Most notably, they signed Red Sox free agent closer Jonathan Papelbon to a crazy-big contract worth $50 million over four years. Yep, they took a lot of grief for it, but that's what they did. And once the ink dried, the money was effectively spent, so that's what they've got. I figure if you're going to pay a young man that kind of money, you are better to put him to work, right? That's why I'm confused.
Papelbon has been in the majors since 2005 and took over the Sox closer role in 2006. Since then, he's been one of the best in the business, as you know. He was a bit off in 2010, but bounced back nicely last season and was rewarded with the big bucks from the Phils. The last four years, Papelbon has pitched 64.1, 67, 68 and 69 innings.
So on Thursday, Opening Day, you couldn't have been surprised when your counterpart Manuel pulled Roy Halladay after eight spectacular innings (the guy's a machine, isn't he?) and called on his $50 Million Man. 10 pitches, three batters and one strikeout later, it was over. The Phils won 1-0 and the $50 Million Man got his first save. I'm sure GM Ruben Amaro and Phillies fans envisioned 50 more games finishing the same way this season.
After Friday's off day, you and the Phillies got into another nail-biting pitchers' duel on Saturday. I bet there was a sigh of relief when your team finally got its first run of the season in the sixth to tie the game 1-1. Going to the seventh, with both teams going into the bullpen, I felt like you had an advantage, but of course, they did have the $50 Million Man.
This time, Manuel used four relievers to get through the seventh, eighth and ninth, but he didn't use his $50 Million Man, because there wasn't a save situation. I loved the way you used two relievers to get through the seventh and eighth and then turned to your closer, Joel Hanrahan, to pitch the ninth. You knew there was no save to be had (it's really just a contrived stat, don't you think?), so it made sense to use your best reliever to get the next outs and put the Bucs in the best position to win. (I'm a little tired of Herm Edwards on ESPN saying "You play to win the game," but we all agree with the point. Fire with your best. Good choice.)
By the way, you know what's funny? Your guy Hanrahan is a lot like the $50 Million Man, if obviously not quite as accomplished. Hanny is 30 years old. He's been in the majors since 2007, but did not really become an elite reliever until last year, when you gave him the job. Great call! He was exceptional last year. And the great thing for you guys is that he comes relatively cheap at $4.1 million this year and is also under team control next year. Can you say relative value? The last three years he has pitched 68.2, 69.2 and 64 innings, almost identical numbers to those of the $50 Million Man.
I digress. Back to Saturday night's game. Hanrahan did his job in the top of the ninth, but your Pirates were unable to push a run across in their half, so on to some extra baseball, still tied 1-1. The people waiting for the fireworks with little kids probably weren't that happy, but I know I was riveted. I was ready for the chess match. You turned to veteran Juan Cruz, who did his job, and the game moved to the bottom of the 10th.
I assumed Manuel would turn to the $50 Million Man at this point. He'd already used four relievers and his options were pretty limited. Of course, I was wrong. It was a long offseason ,and I had forgotten the edict that closers are only to be used in save situations. Being the road team in extra innings, Manuel was going to wait until his team got a lead to use the $50 Million Man. So he turned to Joe Blanton. (I feel like I should be on Twitter and tweet BLOLanton right now.)
I'm guessing your boys in the dugout were licking their chops. Rod Barajas crushed that ball that missed going out by about three inches, but it was high comedy watching him lug himself and that Steinway safely into second. I'll bet you never pinch-ran a catcher for another catcher before! Another crafty move. And while your men made it more interesting than I wanted (how 'bout a fly ball, Clemente, Jr.?), it was great to see them pull out the 2-1 walk-off win, and on an infield single, no less! Another first for you, I assume.
That night, as I was getting ready to go to sleep, all I could envision was Manuel, drinking a beer on his office, cursing himself for not using the $50 Million Man.
But you know what, Clint, maybe it's me who's crazy, 'cause we saw Manuel do the same damn thing on Sunday. Great job by your men to come back from 4-1 down, but I couldn't believe Manuel used his bullpen the way he did. You remember in the eighth inning when you were down 4-3 and the Phils were already on their third reliever? Long weekend, I know, but there were two outs and you guys had guys on first and second. Their lefty Antonio Bastardo was on the hill, and you had lefty Pedro Alvarez coming up. I liked your decision to pinch-hit with right-handed rookie Matt Hague there even though Pedro had homered earlier. Showed some cojones. Play to win the game, right?
I remembered closers are usually only supposed to pitch one inning, but I figured Manuel would want this game badly, particularly after losing such a tough one last night. I mean, the $50 Million Man didn't pitch Friday or Saturday and the Phils have an off day on Tuesday. If not then for a four-out save, when? Pretty high-leverage situation too, don't you think?
Well, we know what happened. Bastardo stayed in the game and Hague, The Hit Collector, came through with his first major-league knock, tying the game at four. Then it was a replay of Saturday night. You knew your team would not have a save situation playing at home -- not that that would matter of course, you just wanted to use your best pitcher to get some outs. Call on Joel! And he did the job.
Cue the bottom of the ninth and no save situation, and Manuel turned to some guy named David Herndon. Casey McGehee doubled, Andrew McCutchen had a great at bat, and you guys got win number two.
But Clint, sorry to ramble on, there is one thing I need to point out to you. Remember last year when you guys were tied for first place in the NL Central on July 26 with a 53-47 record and the Pirates were the talk of the baseball world? You played that 19-inning game that night against the Braves and got jobbed by Jerry Meals and lost 4-3? Yeah, you didn't use Joel Hanrahan that game.
Yep, your relievers did do a great job in that 19-inning game. But then the next night you had to go extra innings again. You lost 2-1 in 10 innings. You kept Hanrahan in the pen that game too. You did use Hanny the following day and even brought him in for a four-out save, but your team would go on to lose the next 10 in a row, and you ended up using Hanrahan three times in that stretch just to get him work. In the middle of that losing streak, in an extra-inning game in Philadelphia, you chose not to use him and the team lost 6-5 after being ahead 5-3 going to the bottom of the eighth.
In fact, I looked it up. Over the course of last year, your team went 1-5 in extra-inning road games. You used Joel Hanrahan in only two of those games. They were both save situations where he blew the lead, which led directly to the games going to extra innings. It happens, no problem there. But in the other four road extra-inning contests last year, you did exactly what Manuel did this weekend and left your best reliever in the bullpen. You lost on every occasion. That doesn't even count games in which you were tied or ahead in the eighth or ninth and ended up losing while your man Hanrahan went unused. There were a bunch of those too.
I know you are concerned about your players' health, but overwork didn't drive the decision in any of those four instances, just like it didn't for Manuel on Sunday. Instead, a dumb statistic apparently drove the decision. Why would Manuel manage for a stat when he is already managing the $50 Million Man? His Man got paid, and Manuel should now use him when it serves the team best.
You may have to deal with egos, but you're good at that and Hanrahan seems like a really good guy. I know it isn't about trying to get him 45 saves, it's about trying to get the Pirates 80, 85, 90 wins. You need to use him like you did this weekend. You need your best pitchers to pitch the most innings and also hopefully the most important innings. Your men look like they might be slightly offensively-challenged this year, so pitching is going to matter more than ever.
Clint, the old cliche that you have forgotten more about baseball than I'll ever know probably applies in spades here. But I'm thinking Manuel may have cost his team a game or two this weekend because you managed the pants off him at PNC Park. I just hope that when those games get played in Citizens Bank Ballpark or any other of the road venues you visit this year, the roles aren't reversed because you base your decision-making on a silly statistic. Use the best pitchers available to get the outs that give your team the best chance to win. The other way didn't work for you last year and it didn't work for Mr. Manuel this weekend.
Think Goose Gossage in his prime. Joel Hanrahan certainly is physically able to pitch 80 to 85 innings. That is how you need to use your $4.1 Million Man. And let's be realistic, he likely is going to be someone else's $30-40 Million Man soon enough.
I look forward to seeing you when you're back in town, Congratulations again on a good start, and best of luck out west.
Best,
David
Friday, April 6, 2012
Podcast Central: Steelers, Pirates
As most of you know I do a thrice weekly podcast covering the Steelers and the NFL with Dave Bryan of SteelersDepot.com. You can find these podcasts on the right side of this blog about halfway down the page. You can also listen and subscribe on iTunes here.
This time of year we spend most of our time talking about the upcoming draft. Today we spent about 45 minutes talking gap technique for defensive lineman and previewed the TEs & OTs available in this year's class. I will link to it as soon as it is posted. (UPDATE: You can now link to it on the iTunes link above.)
More recently I have started doing podcasts with Charlie Wilmoth of BucsDugout.com. Here is our most-recent effort previewing the Pirates season. It runs about 30 minutes. Hopefully I can set a link up for this as well, but I will be posting them on the blog for the time being. You can play the podcast on your computer by just clicking the arrow. You can also listen and subscribe via iTunes here.
You can also follow on Twitter @hammerspeaks (sports/general) @DTonPirates @TerriblePodcast and @BDPodcast
Feedback is welcome. Thanks for listening.
This time of year we spend most of our time talking about the upcoming draft. Today we spent about 45 minutes talking gap technique for defensive lineman and previewed the TEs & OTs available in this year's class. I will link to it as soon as it is posted. (UPDATE: You can now link to it on the iTunes link above.)
More recently I have started doing podcasts with Charlie Wilmoth of BucsDugout.com. Here is our most-recent effort previewing the Pirates season. It runs about 30 minutes. Hopefully I can set a link up for this as well, but I will be posting them on the blog for the time being. You can play the podcast on your computer by just clicking the arrow. You can also listen and subscribe via iTunes here.
You can also follow on Twitter @hammerspeaks (sports/general) @DTonPirates @TerriblePodcast and @BDPodcast
Feedback is welcome. Thanks for listening.
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Neil Walker And Bob Nutting's Money
This is an article I published on BucsDugout.com a few days ago.
The ink didn't even dry on Andrew McCutchen's new contract before everyone turned their attention to who's next in line for the big money. As WTM has posted, Neil Walker is the candidate that seems to be first on everyone's list. Pat over at WHYGAVS also shared his thoughts on the matter.
Let's take a look at whether this makes sense. Between Jose Tabata and Andrew McCutchen the Pirates now have a financial commitment of $14 million in 2015, $17.5 million in 2016 and $20.5 million in 2017 if the team decides to exercise Tabata's option. That's for two players. Assuming Bob Nutting still owns the team and Richard Branson doesn't assume the Ron Burkle role as limited partner, that is likely to be a significant percentage of the Pirates' total payroll. If the payroll jumped to $80 million in 2017, about a 60 percent increase from where it is today, that would represent 25 percent of the total--for just two players.
2017 is so far off that it is almost silly to make any kind of assumptions about players and their development, but if we are talking about long-term contracts we have to at least sketch out a possible roadmap. Looking at the Pirates roster we see that in 2017 Pedro Alvarez will most likely have had six years of major league service and be eligible to be a free agent. Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon should be in their arbitration years as shouldStarling Marte. Josh Bell should be 3-4 years into his major league career and also be on the cusp of arb eligibility. Certainly it is unlikely that each of these players develops exactly as the Pirates and their fans hope, but they all have high ceilings and all have the potential to command big money if they do.
Neil Walker is 26 years old. Last year he hit .273/.334/.408. He had an OPS+ of 105. Most would categorize him as average defensively. He will make about $450,000 this year. Walker is likely to be a super two candidate next year, his third year of service in the major leagues, which means he will have four years of arbitration eligibility rather than three.
As much as fans might hope, there is nothing in Neil Walker's track record to suggest that he is going to become a much different player than the player we see today. ZIPS projects him to be a .268/.325/.432 hitter this year with 16 homers and 89 RBI. Last year Garrett Jones went .243/.321/.433 with 16 homers and 58 RBI. This offseason there was discussion that Jones might be non-tendered. The Pirates kept Jones and went to arbitration over $250,000. The team won and Jones will make $2.25 million this year. Certainly, as a second baseman, Walker has much more positional value than Jones, but I think the comparison is useful nonetheless.
With this information we can guess that Neil Walker would probably make about $3 million next year if he went to arbitration. From there maybe he gets $4.5, $6 and $8 million. So including this year Walker should make about $20-25 million in his years leading to free agency. In a twitter conversation Pat suggested that a second baseman with power who collects RBI will be overvalued by the arbitration process. I think this is flawed thinking that I hear all the time: that arbitrators don't think like sabermetricans and only look at things like HRs, RBI, wins and saves. Over the last five years I haven't seen anything to prove that one way or the other. Comparable players and their salaries are the biggest determining factor and of course all sorts of statistics are presented by each side to influence the decision. If Walker's career path proceeds as expected, I think the numbers above are a reasonable guideline.
Why would it make any sense for the Pirates to guarantee this money today? Sure, Walker could explode and put up Chase Utley-like numbers the next few years. But in 2010, at age 31, Utley's OPS dropped from .905 to .832. Last year it dropped again to .769 with an OPS+ of 109. The Phillies paid Utley $15 million in 2010 and 2011 and owe him $15 million in each of the next two seasons as well. At 33, Utley certainly appears to be well into the decline phase of his career, and he is not worth anything close to $15 million.
In 2017 Neil Walker will turn 31 and will be eligible for free agency. Paying him $3-5 million per year for the next few years seems reasonable and certainly within the Pirates' limited resources. But with those limited resources the Pirates should never pay a player like Walker more than $5 million. They should move year-to-year with a player like him and cut ties when he becomes too expensive. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, Walker isn't likely to become more agile and improve defensively as he ages. He most likely won't be a second baseman when he hits his thirties. Sure, he is a Pittsburgh guy, but when looking at long-term assets, paying Walker guaranteed money now for years that the Pirates already control makes no sense unless you can negotiate a Tabata-like contract, which was so much in the team's favor that Tabata's agent resigned rather than have his name associated with the deal. (The optionality associated with Tabata's contract is a HUGE asset for the Pirates that is generally under-appreciated.) With players like Alvarez, Cole, Taillon, Marte and Bell in the system, the Pirates need to be very smart about handing out guaranteed money.
Plain and simple, the Pirates should shelve contract talks with Walker. He is a useful player under the current salary structure, but probably won't be, at the price he may command, four years from now. And they certainly shouldn't look to buy out any of his free agency years at numbers when he will most-likely be in the decline phase. The team has plenty of time to develop a player who can put up league average numbers and will cost closer to $500,000 as opposed to $5-8 million. With the Pirates' resources, signing Neil Walker to a long-term deal at this point is a bad idea.
UPDATE: The next 3-4 years are likely to be the most productive of Walker's career. Because of the system currently in place the Pirates will get Walker's services relatively cheaply during that time, starting with a well-below-market cost of $450,000 this year. The Pirates shouldn't overpay for the later years of control or free agency years because they get him cheaply now. Any long-term deal is likely to do that.
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Programming Note: On ESPN 970 This Week & Next
I will be filling in for Stan Savran on his show from 10:00-noon this Wednesday (Feb 22) through Friday and again on Monday while he takes a much deserved vacation.
I'll have some great guests including EJ Hradek of NHL Network, Jim Callis of Baseball America, Charlie Wilmoth of Bucs Dugout, Dave Bryan of Steelers Depot and more.
You can listen on 970 ESPN in Pittsburgh or on the iHeartRadio app.
I'll have some great guests including EJ Hradek of NHL Network, Jim Callis of Baseball America, Charlie Wilmoth of Bucs Dugout, Dave Bryan of Steelers Depot and more.
You can listen on 970 ESPN in Pittsburgh or on the iHeartRadio app.
Wednesday, February 8, 2012
NBA: All Jeremy Lin All The Time, With A Dash Of Kobe
Yesterday I gave you a little Jeremy Lin. Today he's getting equal billing with Eli Manning and Tiger Woods, who's making his season debut at Pebble this week. I'm not sure what people find more interesting, the fact that the guy went to Harvard or that he's the first Asian-American to play in the NBA. Stir fry together and you have a media frenzy. Here's a taste:
Let's enjoy the ride. Next up for the Knicks? The Wizards, 7:00. Hope you have NBA League Pass.
One more link. A look at Kobe and the Lakers in crunch time. Not pretty.
- Some dude got the fever and only had to spend $11 for satisfaction. Hearing Lin was going to make his first start Monday night in the Garden he had to go see for himself. My favorite lines: "Asians in the crowd were high-fiving random other Asians," and "One woman...saw me there and asked if I was his publicist."
- The New York Post isn't going to miss what is going on in it's back yard.
- The New York Times says Lin has gone from "novelty act to Knicks star." No hype there. He's started one game in his career.
- The Wall Street Journal say Lin "saved the Knicks season," and calls him "virtually unguardable." I like the story as much as anyone, but the dude isn't Bruce, or even Butch Lee just yet. It is worth pointing out that Lin has trouble going to his left and turned the ball over seven times in the second half against the Jazz on Monday. In the words of Dennie Green, let's not crown his ass just yet.
- The Times has more. It takes a look at Lin's unusual career path.
- Sports Illustrated didn't miss the boat. One of many to coin the phrase "Linsanity." The half-man, half-amazing would be proud.
Let's enjoy the ride. Next up for the Knicks? The Wizards, 7:00. Hope you have NBA League Pass.
One more link. A look at Kobe and the Lakers in crunch time. Not pretty.
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
Under The Radar: Three Stories You Missed Due To SBXLVI
Yea, SB XLVI. I'm guessing you heard about it. Here are some things you probably didn't hear about because of it. You are officially on the clock. Identify the athletes before you read the stories.
A) Kyle Stanley
B) Jeremy Lin
C) Alberto Contador
-------------------
A) You might have heard about Kyle Stanley last week. He's the PGA golfer who had a seven-shot lead during the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines but couldn't close the deal for his first professional win.
Stanley struggled throughout that final round, but still managed to get to 18 holding a three-stroke lead. Sponsors were so sure he was going to win they even cut him one of those massive oversized checks. Then he went all Jean van de Velde, cue youtube video of the 1999 British Open, and put up a snowman on the par 5, missing a three-footer to fall back into a playoff. Predictably he lost, costing himself $400K and an automatic spot in the Masters. It's the type of loss that can have a long-term impact on a career.
In this case long-term was one week. Sunday Spencer Levin played the role of Jean Valjean van de Velde/Kyle Stanley (nice headline by Golf Digest) and Stanley was on the receiving end of a second epic collapse. Levin had a six-stroke lead going into the round and a seven-stroke lead after one hole. But Stanley, eight strokes back at one point, got hot, shooting 65 to end up winning by a stroke. Get out the cardboard check for $1.098M and that Masters invitation. He now tops the PGA money list after four weeks with $1,793,575 in earnings. Not a bad start to 2012 and a nice rebound from last week's disaster. Now we'll see if we ever hear from Spencer Levin again.
Just for amusement here is the money list from this year's PGA Tour thru four weeks. How many of the top ten have you ever heard from before? I thought so.
B) Harvard basketball has been getting a lot of attention lately. The team is 20-2 on the season and currently ranked 21st in the ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll ahead of the likes of Indiana, Louisville and Michigan. They won the Battle for Atlantis tournament over Thanksgiving beating No. 17 Florida St. and Central Florida, which had earlier beaten UConn. They are undefeated in the Ivy League and are almost certain to get their first NCAA tournament bid.
The past couple days, however, the college team is taking a back seat to an alum who is taking New York by storm--and not on Wall St. Jeremy Lin was a three-time All-Ivy player who graduated from Harvard in '10. He was signed as a free agent by Golden St. that July and last year played in 29 games, averaging 9.8 minutes and 2.6 points/game. Lin made the Warriors roster again this season but was waived early on. Shortly thereafter he was signed by the Houston Rockets, but two weeks later he was waived again. Just after Christmas he was claimed by the New York Knicks.
The Knicks are one of the strike-shortened season's early disappointments. Terrible guard play, a poorly-conceived roster and unclear roles have gotten the team off to a terrible start. Add injuries and you have a squad languishing near the bottom of a very bottom-heavy Eastern Conference.
Lin joined the back end of the Knicks bench. NBA teams are allowed to have 15 players on their roster, but the last few spots are considered flotsam. Rarely do guys on the fringes ever crack the rotation. They generally bounce back and forth to the D-League or Europe, looking for a paycheck and an opportunity. That seemed to be Jeremy Lin's path.
Maybe not. After being signed, predictably, Lin sat. He saw playing time in nine games, but garbage time, only playing more than seven minutes in one of those contests going into Saturday night's home game with the New Jersey Nets. Then the proverbial opportunity knocked. In 35 minutes of action Lin put up 25 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists and helped lead the Knicks past the Nets. Coach Mike D'Antonio announced afterward that Lin would get his first career start on Monday.
And he did. With Giants football players in the seats firing up the fans, all hell broke loose in the Garden. Jeremy Lin had the night of his young career. By the end of the game Knicks fans were chanting M-V-P, M-V-P. Playing without all-stars Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony (injured in the first quarter), Lin lead the Knicks to a 99-88 victory over the Utah Jazz. He put up 28 points and 8 assists becoming the first player to do that in his first start since Isiah Thomas 30 years ago. He got the cover photo on the ESPN NBA page and he damn near stole the headlines from the Super Bowl Champion Giants. Throw in the fact that the kid is Asian-American and you have a story that is sweeping the NBA. Now that the Association gets to step front and center with the football season behind us, we'll see if The Jeremy Lin Show continues. At least now you know who he is.
C) Alberto Contador won the Tour de France in 2007, '09 and '10. Yesterday he was stripped of his 2010 title for doping. As Jim Caple writes, can anyone ever take this sport seriously again? In 14 of the last 16 years the winner has been suspected or caught doping. And, yes, I think Armstrong doped. The only good thing that can be said for cycling these days is they go after guys suspected of cheating and they go after them hard. Many sports are afraid to do that because it kills the image and reputation of the sport. Unfortunately that's true and cycling is suffering big time as a result.
The past couple days, however, the college team is taking a back seat to an alum who is taking New York by storm--and not on Wall St. Jeremy Lin was a three-time All-Ivy player who graduated from Harvard in '10. He was signed as a free agent by Golden St. that July and last year played in 29 games, averaging 9.8 minutes and 2.6 points/game. Lin made the Warriors roster again this season but was waived early on. Shortly thereafter he was signed by the Houston Rockets, but two weeks later he was waived again. Just after Christmas he was claimed by the New York Knicks.
The Knicks are one of the strike-shortened season's early disappointments. Terrible guard play, a poorly-conceived roster and unclear roles have gotten the team off to a terrible start. Add injuries and you have a squad languishing near the bottom of a very bottom-heavy Eastern Conference.
Lin joined the back end of the Knicks bench. NBA teams are allowed to have 15 players on their roster, but the last few spots are considered flotsam. Rarely do guys on the fringes ever crack the rotation. They generally bounce back and forth to the D-League or Europe, looking for a paycheck and an opportunity. That seemed to be Jeremy Lin's path.
Maybe not. After being signed, predictably, Lin sat. He saw playing time in nine games, but garbage time, only playing more than seven minutes in one of those contests going into Saturday night's home game with the New Jersey Nets. Then the proverbial opportunity knocked. In 35 minutes of action Lin put up 25 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists and helped lead the Knicks past the Nets. Coach Mike D'Antonio announced afterward that Lin would get his first career start on Monday.
And he did. With Giants football players in the seats firing up the fans, all hell broke loose in the Garden. Jeremy Lin had the night of his young career. By the end of the game Knicks fans were chanting M-V-P, M-V-P. Playing without all-stars Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony (injured in the first quarter), Lin lead the Knicks to a 99-88 victory over the Utah Jazz. He put up 28 points and 8 assists becoming the first player to do that in his first start since Isiah Thomas 30 years ago. He got the cover photo on the ESPN NBA page and he damn near stole the headlines from the Super Bowl Champion Giants. Throw in the fact that the kid is Asian-American and you have a story that is sweeping the NBA. Now that the Association gets to step front and center with the football season behind us, we'll see if The Jeremy Lin Show continues. At least now you know who he is.
C) Alberto Contador won the Tour de France in 2007, '09 and '10. Yesterday he was stripped of his 2010 title for doping. As Jim Caple writes, can anyone ever take this sport seriously again? In 14 of the last 16 years the winner has been suspected or caught doping. And, yes, I think Armstrong doped. The only good thing that can be said for cycling these days is they go after guys suspected of cheating and they go after them hard. Many sports are afraid to do that because it kills the image and reputation of the sport. Unfortunately that's true and cycling is suffering big time as a result.
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