I'm introducing a new format for all the episodes of The Terrible Podcast. There is now a widget on the sidebar on the right which will allow you to see and play any episode. "Playlist" will list all the episodes and "Details" will give you a couple of paragraphs describing the content. The 66th and final episode of Season 1 was just added. Season 2 will get underway as soon as the CBA is signed, sealed and delivered. Thanks for listening.
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In Episode 66 of The Terrible Podcast Dave and I (hopefully) close the books on Season 1. If the CBA gets signed, sealed and delivered we will resume our in-season schedule with three episodes a week beginning next week with Episode 1 of Season 2. We'll have to figure out some fancy notation for that, something like 2:1 or 1:2 to go with our fancy logo.
In this episode we start with the latest updates on the labor situation. We have stayed away from the nuts & bolts so far because it was all speculation, but now the agreement is really taking shape and we discuss some of the important topics.
I weigh in with my thoughts on both the James Harrison and Hines Ward situations and then we get into the salary cap issues that Dave has written about in great detail on SteelersDepot.com. We also look at how the timeline will play out from here to the regular season if an agreement is reached in the next few days.
We wrap with a look at Dennis Dixon and whether he might be an attractive tender candidate for another team and answer a listener's question about the roles of Limas Sweed and Jonathan Dwyer.
We are revved up and ready to go. Hopefully we can get this CBA behind us and start ripping episodes for The Terrible Podcast Season 2 starting next week. Thanks for all the great support. Real Steelers football looks to be right around the corner.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
Monday, July 18, 2011
An Illusion or One of the Best in Baseball? A Look at Jeff Karstens
One of the many appealing aspects of the game of baseball is its rich statistical record. By looking at a box score a fan can recreate what happened over the course of a game without having seen it. By looking at seasons of data, players from different eras can be compared and bar stool debates become enlivened.
Over the last thirty years, through the development of sabermetrics, our understanding of the statistical record of baseball has been advanced and the analysis has become more granular. Pitcher wins and RBI are less meaningful numbers, while FIP and BABip, among others, have been added to the lexicon and elevated in status.
With the reams of available data and the development of these new statistics, the predictive nature of player analysis has become much more refined. Now a variety of programs can, with some degree of accuracy, forecast each and every player's performance based on their past history and that of other similar players. Certainly there will be outliers, but in general these player forecasting models do a pretty accurate job of projecting performance.
All of which is a roundabout way of getting to Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Jeff Karstens. As Karstens rolled through the Houston Astros on his way to an 83-pitch, 5-hit shutout last night, a win that moved the Bucs into first place in the NL Central, the oft-seen debate again flared up on Twitter. Is Jeff Karstens really this good or is this just an incredible hot streak which too shall pass? The two positions are pretty clearly delineated:
Smoke & Mirrors:
ESPN.com baseball analyst Keith Law has become the evil personification of this position in the eyes of many Pirates fans. During last night's game Law tweeted this, this and this among other things.** Law's opinion is based on history and scouting. Certainly the 28-year old Karstens' major league performance coming into the season did not portend this type of success. In 50 starts and 89 total appearances he posted an ERA of 5.07, an ERA+ of 83, and a WHIP of 1.441. He had a K/9 of 4.5, not exactly Gibsonian, and a BB/9 of 2.8. Throw in his 12-27 W/L record and "Cy Young candidate" does not jump off the page.
**Law didn't endear himself to Pirates fans just before the all-star break either. When asked if the Pirates winning record was for real, he tweeted no, they were 38-40 against all teams not called the Astros. Fans rightly pointed out that he was cherry-picking his stats, ignoring the Pirates 8-4 combined record against the Phillies, Red Sox, Cards & Diamondbacks, all first place teams at the time.
Watch Him Pitch:
That is pretty much the best way to sum up the other point of view. Last night's game would be Exhibit A in the courtroom.
9 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K. 30 batters faced. 83 pitches-64 strikes, 8 Swinging Strikes
Advocates of this position argue Karstens has become a much better "pitcher." He has shown much better command and an ability to vary his pitches and pitch speed due to a new approach on the mound crafted with new pitching coach Ray Searage.
The Reality:
The great thing about statistics is first and foremost, before being predictive, they tell us what actually did happen. There is no room for debate here, so let's look at what Jeff Karstens has done thus far this year. His full player page is here.
When analyzing Karsten's numbers against the top 20 qualified National League pitchers based on ERA, we find some pretty interesting things. All twenty have made at least 16 starts and none more than 20. Kartens has made 16 and is the only one of the group to have appeared in relief, which he has done four times.
Of the group Karstens is 18th in IP, 18th in K/9, 20th in HR/9, 19th in HR/FB% and 20th in WAR.** His FIP-ERA is almost double any other pitcher on the list.
**Fangraphs has Karstens at a WAR value of 0.4 putting him ahead of only James McDonald among Pirates starters and 52 out of 60 qualified NL starters. B-R has him at a value of 2.5, first among Pirates starters and 17th in the NL.
On the flip side he is 3rd in ERA, 4th in WHIP, 1st in pitches/IP, 2nd in BB/9, 2nd in BABip and 1st in LOB%.
These numbers generally tell you everything you need to know about the debate. The Smoke and Mirrors camp points to the fact that Karstens doesn't strike anyone out, gives up tons of home runs and has been very lucky with an unsustainably low BABip and LOB% which are currently much better than league average. The argument says those numbers are due to revert and poof, the Karstens of old will reappear.
The Watch Him Pitch camp can point to Karstens pinpoint command as demonstrated by his amazingly low walk total, his low WHIP and the fact that he goes after hitters efficiently. They point to the fact that all his home runs allowed as a starter have been solo shots and batters are rarely squaring him up and making good contact. His LD% is a touch below league average and his HR/FB% should revert back toward the mean counteracting his BABip reverting the other way. His swinging strike % of 13% is just off the league average of 15% and is above his career average, while is K% is a career-best 14.2% and is a more reflective number than K/9 because he has faced so many fewer hitters.
Either way it is virtually impossible to argue that anyone has been better than Karstens since June 1. Since that time here are JK's numbers:
8 GS, 57.1 IP, 39 H, 7 BB 0.802 WHIP, 20 K, .554 OPS, 1.26 ERA, 5-0 W/L
While analysts and fans can point to numbers that may revert, past events don't change. This statistical record is in the books. It is what it is. And while some may not like how it was achieved or who it was achieved against** or that Karstens didn't strike out enough batters, I'm certain you won't find a pitcher who was better than Jeff Karstens the last six weeks. That's just fact.
**Detractors will point to the fact that three of Karsten's last six starts have come against the Astros one of the worst teams in baseball. While the Astros are bad, their lineup isn't that bad and as a team they have an OPS+ of 94, not much off the league average. Also, facing a team 3 times in 31 days generally works heavily in favor of the hitters, not the pitcher.
The $64,000 Question:
Karstens next three starts come against the Reds, Braves and Phillies, the last two on the road.
If you're are a Karstens fan, take heart in the fact that the Keith Law's of the world have been wrong before. An analyst that relies heavily on statistics and scouting reports is certainly likely to be right way more often than wrong, but it is very hard to ever believe in any player showing a dramatic change particularly later in his career. Law was spectacularly wrong on Jose Bautista, even at the start of this year, so it happens.
The reality is that few players do make a quantum leap later in their career and at 28 this would be a remarkable performance shift if Karstens were able to maintain it.
I've seen every game Karstens has pitched this year. As late as the beginning of June I was expecting and advocating for the Pirates to call up Brad Lincoln to take his spot in the rotation. Karstens inability to get deep in games and career track record were the reasons. Has my opinion changed? Absolutely. What I've seen on the mound is a different guy in terms of his command and pitch selection. While the comparisons to Greg Maddux sound silly, I can certainly see why somebody watching the last eight games would make them. Batters never seem to square up balls, he keeps hitters off-balance and his command is outstanding.
While it would be foolish to expect Karstens next 15 starts to be as good as his last eight, I do think Karstens is capable of continuing to pitch at a high level down the stretch. It's taken a long time for me to come around, but this is doesn't seem to be an illusion.
I'll just enjoy watching him take the ball every fifth day and see how it plays out. Maybe the Pirates have found themselves a pitching-version of Jose Bautista, and the rest of the league can kick themselves that they didn't pick him up off waivers when he was DFA'd off the 40-man roster less than two years ago. Maybe the baseball gods really are smiling on Pittsburgh for a change.
Over the last thirty years, through the development of sabermetrics, our understanding of the statistical record of baseball has been advanced and the analysis has become more granular. Pitcher wins and RBI are less meaningful numbers, while FIP and BABip, among others, have been added to the lexicon and elevated in status.
With the reams of available data and the development of these new statistics, the predictive nature of player analysis has become much more refined. Now a variety of programs can, with some degree of accuracy, forecast each and every player's performance based on their past history and that of other similar players. Certainly there will be outliers, but in general these player forecasting models do a pretty accurate job of projecting performance.
All of which is a roundabout way of getting to Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Jeff Karstens. As Karstens rolled through the Houston Astros on his way to an 83-pitch, 5-hit shutout last night, a win that moved the Bucs into first place in the NL Central, the oft-seen debate again flared up on Twitter. Is Jeff Karstens really this good or is this just an incredible hot streak which too shall pass? The two positions are pretty clearly delineated:
Smoke & Mirrors:
ESPN.com baseball analyst Keith Law has become the evil personification of this position in the eyes of many Pirates fans. During last night's game Law tweeted this, this and this among other things.** Law's opinion is based on history and scouting. Certainly the 28-year old Karstens' major league performance coming into the season did not portend this type of success. In 50 starts and 89 total appearances he posted an ERA of 5.07, an ERA+ of 83, and a WHIP of 1.441. He had a K/9 of 4.5, not exactly Gibsonian, and a BB/9 of 2.8. Throw in his 12-27 W/L record and "Cy Young candidate" does not jump off the page.
**Law didn't endear himself to Pirates fans just before the all-star break either. When asked if the Pirates winning record was for real, he tweeted no, they were 38-40 against all teams not called the Astros. Fans rightly pointed out that he was cherry-picking his stats, ignoring the Pirates 8-4 combined record against the Phillies, Red Sox, Cards & Diamondbacks, all first place teams at the time.
Watch Him Pitch:
That is pretty much the best way to sum up the other point of view. Last night's game would be Exhibit A in the courtroom.
9 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K. 30 batters faced. 83 pitches-64 strikes, 8 Swinging Strikes
Advocates of this position argue Karstens has become a much better "pitcher." He has shown much better command and an ability to vary his pitches and pitch speed due to a new approach on the mound crafted with new pitching coach Ray Searage.
The Reality:
The great thing about statistics is first and foremost, before being predictive, they tell us what actually did happen. There is no room for debate here, so let's look at what Jeff Karstens has done thus far this year. His full player page is here.
When analyzing Karsten's numbers against the top 20 qualified National League pitchers based on ERA, we find some pretty interesting things. All twenty have made at least 16 starts and none more than 20. Kartens has made 16 and is the only one of the group to have appeared in relief, which he has done four times.
Of the group Karstens is 18th in IP, 18th in K/9, 20th in HR/9, 19th in HR/FB% and 20th in WAR.** His FIP-ERA is almost double any other pitcher on the list.
**Fangraphs has Karstens at a WAR value of 0.4 putting him ahead of only James McDonald among Pirates starters and 52 out of 60 qualified NL starters. B-R has him at a value of 2.5, first among Pirates starters and 17th in the NL.
On the flip side he is 3rd in ERA, 4th in WHIP, 1st in pitches/IP, 2nd in BB/9, 2nd in BABip and 1st in LOB%.
These numbers generally tell you everything you need to know about the debate. The Smoke and Mirrors camp points to the fact that Karstens doesn't strike anyone out, gives up tons of home runs and has been very lucky with an unsustainably low BABip and LOB% which are currently much better than league average. The argument says those numbers are due to revert and poof, the Karstens of old will reappear.
The Watch Him Pitch camp can point to Karstens pinpoint command as demonstrated by his amazingly low walk total, his low WHIP and the fact that he goes after hitters efficiently. They point to the fact that all his home runs allowed as a starter have been solo shots and batters are rarely squaring him up and making good contact. His LD% is a touch below league average and his HR/FB% should revert back toward the mean counteracting his BABip reverting the other way. His swinging strike % of 13% is just off the league average of 15% and is above his career average, while is K% is a career-best 14.2% and is a more reflective number than K/9 because he has faced so many fewer hitters.
Either way it is virtually impossible to argue that anyone has been better than Karstens since June 1. Since that time here are JK's numbers:
8 GS, 57.1 IP, 39 H, 7 BB 0.802 WHIP, 20 K, .554 OPS, 1.26 ERA, 5-0 W/L
While analysts and fans can point to numbers that may revert, past events don't change. This statistical record is in the books. It is what it is. And while some may not like how it was achieved or who it was achieved against** or that Karstens didn't strike out enough batters, I'm certain you won't find a pitcher who was better than Jeff Karstens the last six weeks. That's just fact.
**Detractors will point to the fact that three of Karsten's last six starts have come against the Astros one of the worst teams in baseball. While the Astros are bad, their lineup isn't that bad and as a team they have an OPS+ of 94, not much off the league average. Also, facing a team 3 times in 31 days generally works heavily in favor of the hitters, not the pitcher.
The $64,000 Question:
Karstens next three starts come against the Reds, Braves and Phillies, the last two on the road.
If you're are a Karstens fan, take heart in the fact that the Keith Law's of the world have been wrong before. An analyst that relies heavily on statistics and scouting reports is certainly likely to be right way more often than wrong, but it is very hard to ever believe in any player showing a dramatic change particularly later in his career. Law was spectacularly wrong on Jose Bautista, even at the start of this year, so it happens.
The reality is that few players do make a quantum leap later in their career and at 28 this would be a remarkable performance shift if Karstens were able to maintain it.
I've seen every game Karstens has pitched this year. As late as the beginning of June I was expecting and advocating for the Pirates to call up Brad Lincoln to take his spot in the rotation. Karstens inability to get deep in games and career track record were the reasons. Has my opinion changed? Absolutely. What I've seen on the mound is a different guy in terms of his command and pitch selection. While the comparisons to Greg Maddux sound silly, I can certainly see why somebody watching the last eight games would make them. Batters never seem to square up balls, he keeps hitters off-balance and his command is outstanding.
While it would be foolish to expect Karstens next 15 starts to be as good as his last eight, I do think Karstens is capable of continuing to pitch at a high level down the stretch. It's taken a long time for me to come around, but this is doesn't seem to be an illusion.
I'll just enjoy watching him take the ball every fifth day and see how it plays out. Maybe the Pirates have found themselves a pitching-version of Jose Bautista, and the rest of the league can kick themselves that they didn't pick him up off waivers when he was DFA'd off the 40-man roster less than two years ago. Maybe the baseball gods really are smiling on Pittsburgh for a change.
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
That Roster Crunch IS Coming...In July
A lot has been written about the roster crunch the Pirates are going to face in December when a large group of prospects will be have to be protected on the team's 40-man roster or become subject to the Rule 5 draft. It is a new problem, and a good one, as it shows the increasing organizational depth the Pirates have developed during Neal Huntington's stewardship.
But the Pirates face a much more immediate roster crunch, and it is also one the team hasn't faced in years. During the second half of July as many as seven veteran major leaguers are going to come off the team's disabled lists and be ready to return to the 25-man roster. Some decisions will be easy. Some will be very difficult. How those decisions play out will go a long way in determining how long the Pirates stay in the playoff picture.
THE FIRST ARRIVALS
It is possible, even perhaps likely, that Ronny Cedeno, Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Joe Beimel will be ready to be activated July 15, the first day back from the all-star break. The three position players made up 3/8 of the team's opening day lineup and Beimel is a veteran lefty who Clint Hurdle told me he is looking forward to having back. Let's look at each player and a possible corresponding move.
Ronny Cedeno (7-day DL July 2, Concussion): This should be pretty straightforward. Cedeno is the team's starting shortstop. While his bat has been erratic, his glove has been excellent and if others in the lineup continue to hit the team can play Ronny even if he slumps. It is worth nothing that Cedeno hit .455/.511/.576 in the 11 games before he was hurt.
Corresponding Move: Option Pedro Ciriaco. Ciriaco doesn't get to play when he's up. He's filling a bench role in case of emergency. He won't be needed.
Pedro Alvarez (15-day DL retroactive to May 20, Quadriceps strain): Again a straightforward move. Various people have been calling for the Pirates to go out and trade for a "bat". Here it is. Alvarez didn't hit the first six weeks of the season, but he has far more upside than anyone available on the trade market and at no cost. He will be plugged back into the starting role at third base and play virtually every day the first few weeks in order to give him ample opportunity to get comfortable. If he performs like he did in September of last year this team's playoff chances go up dramatically.
Corresponding Move: Option Josh Harrison. Harrison is a utility guy who plays hard, but he doesn't project to be much more due to a lack of patience at the plate and a lack of power.
Jose Tabata (15-day DL retroactive to June 27, Right Hand contusion): Tabata probably needed the time on the DL for a variety of reasons--wrist and hand problems, leg problems. While he has struggled since mid-April he will be plugged right back in as the starting left fielder. The more interesting question is where he hits in the lineup. My guess is he gets dropped to the #2 slot.
Corresponding Move: DFA Xavier Paul. This isn't an easy move, but it is the right one. Paul is a solid late inning defensive replacement, but with Presley on the roster his skills are duplicated. He has a .663 OPS and has struck out 29 times in 109 at bats. There is a chance he will get through waivers, but the Pirates could definitely lose him.
Joe Beimel (15-day DL, May 28, Left Elbow soreness): I asked Hurdle about "handedness" in the bullpen and if there were any advantages or disadvantages to having three lefties in the pen. He said management would have a discussion, but he left no doubt that Beimel would be part of it by saying he was looking forward to having Beimel's "veteran experience."
Corresponding Move: Option Chris Leroux. This one is open to debate. If the team wants to have a mop-up guy on the roster, Leroux is the right guy for that role and they could send down either Dan Moskos or Tony Watson, who started great, but has been a little shaky of late. It's just a question of carrying two or three lefties. The good thing here is all three pitchers can be optioned, so the team can mix and match as they move forward as needed.
THE SECOND WAVE
This group is harder to project because the updates have been less detailed in terms of rehab, so there is a good deal of speculation on my part.
Ryan Doumit (15-day DL, May 30, Left Ankle sprain/non-displaced fracture): The question here is just when will Doumit be ready. The initial target date was about two months and everything appears to generally be on schedule. Look for him to begin a rehab assignment around the end of the all-star break and, if all goes smoothly, join the team around August 1.
Corresponding Move: Option Eric Fryer. He gets to go back to Indy, play everyday and try to put himself in the mix for one of the jobs next year.
Steve Pearce (15-day DL, retroactive May 29, Right Calf strain): The classic reason you never ask a player to diagnose his own injury. When hurt Pearce said he would be out for a day. Instead, for the second year in a row, he has missed a great opportunity to get significant playing time. Pearce's righthanded bat and ability to play first base will be a welcome addition back to the ball club. I expect him back around the first of August as well.
Corresponding Move: This one gets harder and will depend on performance over the next month. If Cedeno is settled in and playing well, I would expect the Pirates to option Chase d'Arnaud. Two reasons for this 1.) d'Arnaud would benefit more from playing everyday in Indy. 2.) Rosters expand September 1 and d'Arnaud will be recalled at that time. Certainly the team could DFA Brandon Wood, but for the occasional spot start and pinch-hit role I'd rather keep Wood in the organization and move d'Arnaud.
Ross Ohlendorf (60-day DL, April 9, Right Shoulder strain): When Ohlendorf went down I suggested we may never see him pitch for the Pirates again. I still think that is possible, but he pitched a 45-pitch simulated game yesterday and may finally be making progress. I'm guessing Ohlendorf begins an official rehab assignment on August 1. A pitcher is allowed to rehab for 30 days. If Ohlendorf progresses and is needed he can be recalled earlier, otherwise he can be added to the roster when they expand September 1. I don't see him playing a significant role down the stretch. Brad Lincoln will be first in line to get any spot starts. If he comes back he will be a long man in the bullpen.
Corresponding Move: None needed.
OTHER POSSIBILITES:
Evan Meek: (15-DL, June 13, Right Shoulder tendenitis): Meek is a bit of a wildcard. He hasn't appeared healthy all year, but two months off may do the trick. I think he will be back with the club by September 1, but speculating on arm injuries from afar is pretty much guess work. Adding a healthy Meek to a bullpen of Hanrahan, Veras and Resop should make any Pirates fan smile.
Chris Snyder: (60-DL, June 9, Herniated Disc Lower Back): Anything the team gets from Snyder this season is gravy. Because he is a free agent after the year he does have a fair bit of incentive to get back and play before the season is over, but expecting him to do much more than join the expanded roster in September is probably unwise.
The Pirates will go into the all-star break on Sunday with 72 games remaining on the schedule. If they win one of their remaining four games they will have a winning record going into the break for the first time since 1992. If they win all four they will be eight games over .500 and stand a very good chance of being in first place in the National League Central.
44 different players have played for the Pirates this season which makes the team's mid-season success even more remarkable. The team is likely to add seven players to the 25-man roster over the course of the next 30 days which should greatly improve its depth. Questions about playing time in right and left field, first and third base will likely shake out based on performance over the next couple weeks. A roster crunch in late July. An interesting problem for the Pirates to have and certainly one they haven't seen in many years.
But the Pirates face a much more immediate roster crunch, and it is also one the team hasn't faced in years. During the second half of July as many as seven veteran major leaguers are going to come off the team's disabled lists and be ready to return to the 25-man roster. Some decisions will be easy. Some will be very difficult. How those decisions play out will go a long way in determining how long the Pirates stay in the playoff picture.
THE FIRST ARRIVALS
It is possible, even perhaps likely, that Ronny Cedeno, Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Joe Beimel will be ready to be activated July 15, the first day back from the all-star break. The three position players made up 3/8 of the team's opening day lineup and Beimel is a veteran lefty who Clint Hurdle told me he is looking forward to having back. Let's look at each player and a possible corresponding move.
Ronny Cedeno (7-day DL July 2, Concussion): This should be pretty straightforward. Cedeno is the team's starting shortstop. While his bat has been erratic, his glove has been excellent and if others in the lineup continue to hit the team can play Ronny even if he slumps. It is worth nothing that Cedeno hit .455/.511/.576 in the 11 games before he was hurt.
Corresponding Move: Option Pedro Ciriaco. Ciriaco doesn't get to play when he's up. He's filling a bench role in case of emergency. He won't be needed.
Pedro Alvarez (15-day DL retroactive to May 20, Quadriceps strain): Again a straightforward move. Various people have been calling for the Pirates to go out and trade for a "bat". Here it is. Alvarez didn't hit the first six weeks of the season, but he has far more upside than anyone available on the trade market and at no cost. He will be plugged back into the starting role at third base and play virtually every day the first few weeks in order to give him ample opportunity to get comfortable. If he performs like he did in September of last year this team's playoff chances go up dramatically.
Corresponding Move: Option Josh Harrison. Harrison is a utility guy who plays hard, but he doesn't project to be much more due to a lack of patience at the plate and a lack of power.
Jose Tabata (15-day DL retroactive to June 27, Right Hand contusion): Tabata probably needed the time on the DL for a variety of reasons--wrist and hand problems, leg problems. While he has struggled since mid-April he will be plugged right back in as the starting left fielder. The more interesting question is where he hits in the lineup. My guess is he gets dropped to the #2 slot.
Corresponding Move: DFA Xavier Paul. This isn't an easy move, but it is the right one. Paul is a solid late inning defensive replacement, but with Presley on the roster his skills are duplicated. He has a .663 OPS and has struck out 29 times in 109 at bats. There is a chance he will get through waivers, but the Pirates could definitely lose him.
Joe Beimel (15-day DL, May 28, Left Elbow soreness): I asked Hurdle about "handedness" in the bullpen and if there were any advantages or disadvantages to having three lefties in the pen. He said management would have a discussion, but he left no doubt that Beimel would be part of it by saying he was looking forward to having Beimel's "veteran experience."
Corresponding Move: Option Chris Leroux. This one is open to debate. If the team wants to have a mop-up guy on the roster, Leroux is the right guy for that role and they could send down either Dan Moskos or Tony Watson, who started great, but has been a little shaky of late. It's just a question of carrying two or three lefties. The good thing here is all three pitchers can be optioned, so the team can mix and match as they move forward as needed.
THE SECOND WAVE
This group is harder to project because the updates have been less detailed in terms of rehab, so there is a good deal of speculation on my part.
Ryan Doumit (15-day DL, May 30, Left Ankle sprain/non-displaced fracture): The question here is just when will Doumit be ready. The initial target date was about two months and everything appears to generally be on schedule. Look for him to begin a rehab assignment around the end of the all-star break and, if all goes smoothly, join the team around August 1.
Corresponding Move: Option Eric Fryer. He gets to go back to Indy, play everyday and try to put himself in the mix for one of the jobs next year.
Steve Pearce (15-day DL, retroactive May 29, Right Calf strain): The classic reason you never ask a player to diagnose his own injury. When hurt Pearce said he would be out for a day. Instead, for the second year in a row, he has missed a great opportunity to get significant playing time. Pearce's righthanded bat and ability to play first base will be a welcome addition back to the ball club. I expect him back around the first of August as well.
Corresponding Move: This one gets harder and will depend on performance over the next month. If Cedeno is settled in and playing well, I would expect the Pirates to option Chase d'Arnaud. Two reasons for this 1.) d'Arnaud would benefit more from playing everyday in Indy. 2.) Rosters expand September 1 and d'Arnaud will be recalled at that time. Certainly the team could DFA Brandon Wood, but for the occasional spot start and pinch-hit role I'd rather keep Wood in the organization and move d'Arnaud.
Ross Ohlendorf (60-day DL, April 9, Right Shoulder strain): When Ohlendorf went down I suggested we may never see him pitch for the Pirates again. I still think that is possible, but he pitched a 45-pitch simulated game yesterday and may finally be making progress. I'm guessing Ohlendorf begins an official rehab assignment on August 1. A pitcher is allowed to rehab for 30 days. If Ohlendorf progresses and is needed he can be recalled earlier, otherwise he can be added to the roster when they expand September 1. I don't see him playing a significant role down the stretch. Brad Lincoln will be first in line to get any spot starts. If he comes back he will be a long man in the bullpen.
Corresponding Move: None needed.
OTHER POSSIBILITES:
Evan Meek: (15-DL, June 13, Right Shoulder tendenitis): Meek is a bit of a wildcard. He hasn't appeared healthy all year, but two months off may do the trick. I think he will be back with the club by September 1, but speculating on arm injuries from afar is pretty much guess work. Adding a healthy Meek to a bullpen of Hanrahan, Veras and Resop should make any Pirates fan smile.
Chris Snyder: (60-DL, June 9, Herniated Disc Lower Back): Anything the team gets from Snyder this season is gravy. Because he is a free agent after the year he does have a fair bit of incentive to get back and play before the season is over, but expecting him to do much more than join the expanded roster in September is probably unwise.
The Pirates will go into the all-star break on Sunday with 72 games remaining on the schedule. If they win one of their remaining four games they will have a winning record going into the break for the first time since 1992. If they win all four they will be eight games over .500 and stand a very good chance of being in first place in the National League Central.
44 different players have played for the Pirates this season which makes the team's mid-season success even more remarkable. The team is likely to add seven players to the 25-man roster over the course of the next 30 days which should greatly improve its depth. Questions about playing time in right and left field, first and third base will likely shake out based on performance over the next couple weeks. A roster crunch in late July. An interesting problem for the Pirates to have and certainly one they haven't seen in many years.
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