The Terrible Podcast - Episode 24 (1/13) Special Playoff Edition

We recorded a special playoff edition of The Terrible Podcast today as we look forward to the Steelers-Ravens showdown on Saturday.

In Part 1 Dave Bryan interviews ex-Steeler and ESPN analyst Merril Hoge. Dave and Merril discuss the NFL's Play 60 initiative and Merril's charitable work and then get into some analysis of what we can expect from Steelers-Ravens. Dave also asks Merril his thoughts on the Hall of Fame candidacy of Jerome Bettis and Dermontti Dawson.

In Part 2 we interview Aaron Wilson of Ravens Insider, the Carroll County Times and National Football Post. Aaron gives us some great insight into the condition of the Ravens and some keys to look for on both sides of the ball. It's fifteen minutes of great analysis and playoff talk. Aaron concludes with a surprising pick for Saturday's game.

Tomorrow we will have Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders as we bring you our regularly scheduled Episode 25 of The Terrible Podcast. Thanks for listening!

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The Smorgasbord: College Football Potpourri

*University of Pittsburgh Athletic Director Steve Pederson got a mulligan that may profoundly impact the future of the football program. Pederson was under intense criticism for his handling of the firing of Dave Wannstedt and the hiring and firing of Mike Haywood who was arrested for domestic abuse just two weeks into the job. No one will know what kind of job Haywood would have done, but it was clear that he didn't inspire much enthusiasm or confidence. With a second chance Pitt expanded their search and settled on Todd Graham of Tulsa. Graham was deemed too expensive the first time around, but Pederson and Pitt upped the ante when they got a second chance. Good choice. Graham hit a home run with his introductory press conference and has the players, alumni and fans genuinely excited. If Graham's teams do an equally good job on the field, Pitt football may actually move back on to the national stage that has been so elusive the last thirty years.

*In the "You can't Please All the People" Dept. some fans and others who wish the worst for Pitt are criticizing the hire because they see Graham using the Pitt job as a stepping stone. Big deal. If Graham leaves in two or three years for a "bigger" job it will most certainly because he has won a couple BCS bowl games. If that is the case, so be it. Pitt should be happy with that kind of success. And there is a big buyout provision in Graham's contract that is going to make it tough for anyone to come calling in the near future.

*How is it possible that college football players are not taught to return blocked punts?

In the Sugar Bowl between Ohio St.-Arkansas, Arkansas was down five with less than two minutes to play and Ohio St. faced a fourth down in their own territory. Arkansas blocked the punt and three guys chased it down near the OSU 25 yard line, 20 yards behind the line of scrimmage. The players could not scoop it up cleanly, so they fell on the ball which meant they were immediately down according to the college rules. Two plays later the Arkansas quarterback threw an interception. Game over. A few days later, Pitt did the exact same thing. This is ridiculously bad coaching and is completely overlooked by the media. The punt is a change of possession play, it is not a loose ball. No matter who recovers, the receiving team gets possession. There is no reason to ever fall on the ball. Pick it up and run until tackled. In this case it cost Arkansas the game.

*I understand why people want a football playoff system. I don't. I'll just repeat the oft-used example of college basketball as the reason why. The Big East is a great conference and has seven teams in the top 25. Sure it is interesting to watch a game now and then, but the games don't have any meaning. They are all going to be in the NCAA Tournament and then things will shake out. The Tournament in basketball is great, but not practical in football. The "Every Game Counts" mantra of college football may be tired, but it's true. And no matter how big you make a football playoff--4, 8, 16--somebody is going to be left out and there will be a huge uproar each year. We may not know for sure who is better Auburn or TCU, but sometimes it's good to leave it that way. It certainly hasn't hurt the interest level in the sport. And let's be realistic, hell is going to have to freeze over before bowls let the NCAA have control over the purse strings. The amount that the directors of these games are making is staggering.

*Good for both Andrew Luck and Jim Harbaugh. I was shocked, but totally respect Luck's decision. His father is the AD at West Virginia and former NFL quarterback so he probably got some good advice. Staying in school worked for Peyton Manning and Sam Bradford and it cost Matt Leinhart and Jake Locker millions. I don't think there is a right or wrong answer, so I just wish him the best. He seems like a genuinely good guy.

It's a totally different situation for Harbaugh and I think he made a great decision. He needed to strike when he had the opportunity and he will never be more in demand than he is now. With San Francisco he inherits a team with a good deal of talent and an ownership group newly-committed to winning in the style of the Bill Walsh era. Better still, he probably doesn't even have to move. We'll see if he can match his brother's immediate success in the big leagues.

My Steelers-Ravens Preview on ESPN Radio Bakersfield

My guest appearance on the Jake Stevens Show on ESPN 1230 Bakersfield, CA discussing the upcoming Steelers-Ravens matchup. (13:41 run time)

The Terrible Podcast - Episode 23 (1/12)

It's a big week for the The Terrible Podcast this week as the Steelers prepare to host the Baltimore Ravens at 4:30 Saturday at Heinz Field. With so much going on we will be recording an extra podcast that will be posted Thursday and will include interviews with ex-Steeler and ESPN analyst Merril Hoge and Ravens Insider Aaron Wilson. We will be getting their inside analysis on the matchup and their picks to win. On Friday Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders will be our guest, bringing his unique insights to The Terrible Podcast. Be sure to listen and tell your football-crazy friends!


Also, David Todd will be on ESPN 1230 Bakersfield, CA Wednesday evening at 8:30 with Jake Stevens to discuss the game. You can listen live right here: http://thereitisjake.com/main/

In Part 1 of Episode 23 we review the Steelers and Ravens practice and injury reports. Both teams are relatively healthy ahead of Saturday's matchup. We also discuss the rivalry, how players on each team talk about it and what has been said, and in the case of Terrell Suggs worn, so far.

In Part 2 we take a short break from Saturday's game and discuss the six players the Steelers signed to futures contracts this week and we go through each of the 20 players on the current roster whose contracts are up. We give our opinion on the odds of each guy being back on the roster next year. Dave Bryan does a lot of fence-sitting! We had a great time doing it and want to know if you agree with us or not. Thanks for listening.

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The Terrible Podcast - Episode 22 (1/10)

Bring on the Ravens!

In Part 1 of Episode 22, Dave Bryan of SteelersDepot.com and I review Mike Tomlin's press conference which was moved up to Monday with the Steelers playoff game taking place on Saturday. As usual we review the injury update the Tomlin provided. We also talk about Steelers linebacker coach Keith Butler and his future as defensive coorindator-in-waiting or possibly as the defensive coordinator with Ken Whisenhunt and the Arizona Cardinals.

In Part 2 we recap the amazing games that took place on wildcard Saturday, highlighted by the Seahawks shocking upset of the defending Super Bowl champs and a kickoff return that propeled the Jets to victory.

In Part 3 we analyze the Sunday games, focusing on the Chiefs-Ravens matchup which had the attention of Steelers Nation since it determined the Steelers opponent in their playoff opener at Heinz Field on Saturday. The Chiefs made a game of it for about 18 minutes before the roof fell in. We examine why. Also, during our taping we learn who got the job as the next football coach at the University of Pittsburgh. Thanks for listening.

Also, be sure to listen later in the week as we have former Steelers running back and ESPN analyst Merrill Hoge, FootballOutsider.com's Aaron Shantz and Ravens beat writer Aaron Wilson as guests.

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NFL Playoff Picks-Wild Card Playoffs, Sunday Edition

Wow, what a Saturday of football. We went 1-1, getting it right that Seattle would make a game of it (but of course, not suggesting that they would win) and missing with the Colts. File this away: if Seattle and Green Bay play in the NFC Championship it will be in Seattle. Nice.

If there is one thing to take away from yesterday's games, it's that touchdowns are king. Anytime a team limits the other to a short field goal it is a huge win for the defense. Yesterday, the Saints kicked field goals of 21, 22 and 26 yards. The last line of my preview was "...the key is to make the Saints kick field goals and control Marques Colston in the redzone." Seattle kept twelve points off the board with those three field goals. Colston had four catches, but no TDs after getting two in their first meeting. Seattle won by five.

In the Jets-Colts game Peyton Manning had a QB rating of 108.7, Mark Sanchez 62.4. Somebody call Elias or Stats Inc. and find out if that is the greatest negative disparity ever between winning and losing playoff quarterbacks. I've got a fair amount of cash betting yes. The Jets dominated the ball in the second half. The Colts needed to stop the run, but couldn't do it. At the end, though, it was a long kick return that really did them in. Highly unlikely that Mark Sanchez could take them 60 yards in 40 seconds, but he did move them 30 after Antonio Cromartie got them near midfield. And credit to the Jets staff for using Cromartie back there after Brad Smith got injured. Now the Jets go to Foxborough to face their execution.

Great games on Saturday, let's see what we can expect on Sunday:

Baltimore at Kansas City +3:

Going on the road is nothing new for Baltimore. The Ravens have played their last five playoff games away from home, going 3-2. Last year they won at New England before falling to the Colts. Yesterday, it was loud in Seattle, loud in Indianapolis and it will be equally loud at Arrowhead as the Chiefs make their first playoff appearance since 2006.

Like most games, this game will be decided at the line of scrimmage. Kansas City was first in the league in rushing and Baltimore was fifth against the run. Look for Matt Cassel to throw off play action early and get his tight end involved down the middle of the field in order to keep the Ravens from filling the box. I think Kansas City will be able to move the ball on the ground and I look at 130 rushing yards to be the magic number. More than that and I expect a Kansas City win.

For Baltimore to win they have to take the chains off Joe Flacco. I don't think Flacco is a great quarterback, but he has been hindered by the Ravens play calling. Kansas City's corners are really good and equally underrated. If the Ravens go run, run, pass and find themselves in third and long situations they're going to be in trouble. They need to hit Boldin underneath out of the slot and work the outside guys deep on occasion to keep the secondary from jumping routes. Ray Rice has a chance to have a big day as the Ravens offensive line should dominate the point of attack.

I expect another great game. Give me the home team, but I see a Ravens win: Baltimore 24 Kansas City 23

Green Bay +2.5 at Philadelphia:

Looking at the weekend playoff schedule, this game clearly was the marquee matchup. Obviously the NFL thought so, putting it into the Sunday afternoon time slot. After what has come before it, there is a lot to live up to.

Philly is loaded with offensive weapons. Jeremy Maclin averaged 13.8 yds/catch, had ten touchdowns and he's an afterthought in the Eagles arsenal. DeSean, LeSean and of course Mike Vick are the headliners. Vick is the key and the Packers will be fully focused on keeping him in check. Vick and his receivers had trouble handling the blitz late in the season, particularly off the corner, so expect to see Charles Woodson coming off the edge. The Eagles only went 4-4 at Lincoln Financial during the regular season so it isn't clear that they have a huge home field advantage.

Green Bay opened their season in Philly beating the Eagles 27-20. They knocked out Kevin Kolb and had to face Mike Vick, so they've seen this fish before. Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFC and he's going against an Eagles defense that was 21st in the league in points allowed at 23.6. I expect Rodgers to have a great game.

Both these teams are pass first. The difference will be Green Bay's defense, led by probable Defensive Player of the Year Clay Matthews, which was second in points allowed and fifth against the pass. I expect Coordinator Dom Capers to dial up enough in coverage to keep the Eagles guessing while also keeping Vick in the pocket.

The Pack is the choice: Green Bay 37 Philadelphia 20

NFL Playoff Picks-Wild Card Playoffs, Saturday Edition

I finished the regular season a hair under 60% and have had a pretty good run on the bowl games, so let's try to keep it going for the 11 playoffs games on the board. For the record, a few years back I went 10-0-1 in the playoffs. If I go 0-10-1 this year, you'll understand why.

Here is what I'm banking on this weekend:

New Orleans at Seattle +10.5:

Tough game to get a handle on. Seattle is the first team ever to make the playoffs with a 7-9 record. Translation: they suck. I'm guessing if you are a casual fan you can't name one player on their offense other than the quarterback. All nine of their losses have come by 15 points or more. The other 11 playoff teams have lost a total of eight games by that amount. On the positive side home dogs are 11-3 in this round of the playoffs ATS, New Orleans is the biggest road favorite in playoff history and Seattle does have a legitimate home field advantage.

The Saints come into this game banged up. Running backs Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory were placed on the IR this week so Julius Jones and Reggie Bush will carry the mail. New Orleans will also be without stud rookie TE Jimmy Graham and DB Malcolm Jenkins. While Drew Brees threw a career high 22 interceptions on the season, he torched the Seahawks for 392 yards and four TDs when they met in week 11 and the Saints won 34-19 in the Big Easy. Seattle is going to have to find a way to get pressure and force Brees into some of the uncharacteristically bad decision-making we have seen this season. Having already seen him once should be an advantage.

Matt Hassleback will get the start for Seattle and has a 4-1 record in postseason games at Qwest Field. He also had a big game when the teams met earlier, throwing for a season-high 366 yards. But, the key for Seattle will be running the ball.

I really don't like this game, but I think Saints' six hour cross country flight, the relative health of the two teams, the home field advantage and the chance of some weather (70% chance of rain) all play to Seattle's favor. I'd be shocked if the Seahawks can run effectively enough and create enough turnovers to win, but I do think they can keep it within double digits. I see Seattle putting 17 on the board, so the key is to make the Saints kick field goals and control Marques Colston in the redzone.

I'll take Seattle: New Orleans 23 Seattle 17

New York Jets at Indianapolis -2.5:

The Twelfth Man in Seattle doesn't have a lot on the home crowd at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. It gets loud and is a factor that has gone largely overlooked in the discussion so far. The Colts knocked the Jets out last year in the AFC Championship game. This difference this year is they take care of Rex and his boys two rounds earlier.

It really is pretty simple. Peyton Manning had his lowest passer efficiency rating in eight years. He checked in at 91.9, completing 66.3% of his passes for 4,700. The 17 interceptions, to go with his 33 TDs, were the anomaly. Jets QB Mark Sanchez checked in at 75.3. That's terrible. On the season he only completed 54.8% passes and had a 17 TDs and 13 Ints. On top of that he has a sore shoulder.

For the Jets to win the game they are going to have to run the ball effectively and get pressure on Manning. I don't see it happening. I expect Indy to run the ball better than expected and to get an early lead. That is a disaster for the Jets. I don't see this one being close. Give me the Colts in a blowout.

I've got Indy: Indianapolis 31 New York Jets 13