Found (At Least for One Night): The Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins beat the Carolina Hurricane 3-0 Saturday night, playing by far their best game of the season. It wasn't perfect by any means, but it was the really solid team effort that hasn't been seen very often this season. Before getting too excited it is worth noting that the Hurricane play a wide open style, taking and giving up a lot of shots, rarely forechecking and, as far as I could tell, not tracking anyone in their own zone. But whether it was the ten minute players-only meeting after Friday's home loss or something else, every guy in the lineup contributed to this win.

Brent Johnson can't make a stronger case for getting more playing time. There is no question he is the better option in goal at the moment as he posted his fourteenth career shutout and first as a Penguin. Carolina missed an open net early in the third period which would have cut the Pens lead to 2-1, but Johnson was excellent throughout and looked sharp in turning away all 33 shots he faced. He lowered his GAA to 1.16 and his save percentage stands at .960, both second best in the league. It's also worth nothing that in posting his 5-0-1 record Johnson has made five of his six starts on the road.

Evgeni Malkin was out and Kris Letang left early in the second period with a hand injury so the Penguins were playing a bit shorthanded, but they responded with a great commitment to defense and killed seven penalties, including an extended 5-on-3 early in the third period. Pascal Dupuis scored twice and Max Talbot got his second of the season as the Pens broke a three game winless streak.

With Jordan Staal and Zbynek Michalek expected back Wednesday when the Pens begin a three game swing west, it will be interesting to see who Dan Bylsma decides to sit. Assuming Malkin is healthy, Eric Godard will sit and the other forward joining him in the press box will most likely be Tyler Kennedy or Mike Comrie. Both performed as if they knew that last night, playing some of their best hockey of the season in hopes of keeping their spot in the lineup. Ben Lovejoy and Derek Engelland will probably alternate as the sixth defenseman for the time being.

Expectations are extraordinarily high for this team. With the full roster available Wednesday for the first time all season (assuming Malkin and Letang can go), it will be interesting to see if the win in Carolina jump starts them and those expectations start being realized on a nightly basis.

NFL Week 8. Let's Ring the Register

Week 8 in the NFL and we are starting to figure out what is what.  This is the heart of the schedule and Vegas feels like they have a beat on every team. Injuries are more important than ever when setting lines and quarterback play seems to be the key to every game. The goal is to be above 60% for the year, and we are 11-7 in the NFL to date for a 61% mark.  A good 7-3 day in the college games yesterday took us to 26-18, 59%, back on track. Let's ring the register with some good value plays today.

Dallas -6.5 vs. Jacksonville
Ding, ding, ding. This is a five star ***** pick. Get involved in a big way. Jon Kitna isn't Tony Romo, but Dallas will move the ball on the ground and I look for their defense to come up big against a banged up David Garrard. I haven't liked a play this much since the Steelers were -3 in Tampa in week 3. Mortgage money.

New York Jets -6 vs. Green Bay
The Jets have covered their last five and twelve of their last fifteen. Everyone knows Green Bay is banged up and I'm shocked Vegas didn't give them at least a touchdown. LT is having a great season and is one of the feel good stories of the year. Look for him to hit paydirt twice more this week and the Jets to cover this one at home.

I don't see much else that looks great. My leans, but not plays would be Miami +1 at Cincinnati and San Diego -4.5 vs. Tennessee.  Happy Halloween!

UPDATE: Wow. I guess if you are going to be wrong, you might as well get smoked. Who would have believed the football season would end before the baseball season in Dallas? What an embarrassment.

College Picks, Week 9

We had two winners last week with Clemson and Michigan St., which got an unbelivable backdoor cover, putting the blog at 19-15 on the season. That's not great after a hot start, but we're still on the positive side of the ledger. Let's see if we can't take a piece out Saturday and make Halloween a little more spirited.

West Virginia -5 at Connecticut
Let's kick it off with the Friday night game. Both teams looked terrible last week. West Virginia lost 19-14 at home to Syracuse and Connecticut got smoked 26-0 at Louisville. Connecticut is 3-0 at home and West Virginia has only had to go on the road twice so far this year, but WVU is much more talented. Jordan Todman is a good back but Connecticut has been outrushed by an average of over 200 yds/game when playing WVU the last five years. Look for Geno Smith to rebound and WVU to cover.

The Wake Forest/Duke Daily Double
We made some jack early in the season getting against the terrible defenses of both Wake Forest and Duke before getting a bit of a comeuppance when they both lost but narrowly covered. We are back against them this week.

Maryland -5.5 vs. Wake Forest
Wake is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 meetings with Maryland. Throw in the fact that they've lost five in a row and they suck and I don't see any reason to buck the trend.

Navy -12.5 vs. Duke
When you attend one of the service academies I think they focus on not having letdowns. "Hey guys, nice battle, sunk a few ships, did well. Take it easy on the next one and save it up in case we have a big one." I'm pretty sure that's not how it works in war and it won't happen this week after Navy crushed Notre Dame. If Navy wins out they'll be in the top 20. They get Duke at home and the midshipmen will want to put on a show for their classmates after being in NYC last week.

Texas A&M -7.5 vs. Texas Tech
A&M seems to have it finally figured out and the sharps agree having moved the line 2 points from the open already. I'm not a buyer of Tech and I think the sharps are all over this one. Go Aggies.

It's Friday night 6:30. I'll try to get write-ups on the following games up by noon tomorrow, but I like the following,

Ohio St. -25 at Minnesota (national tv on the east coast Sat night);  Miami -14.5 vs. Virginia (blowout);  Oklahoma -23.5 vs. Colorado (Sooners are dominant at home)

Considering: Pitt -9.5 vs. Louisville;  Hawaii -15 vs. Idaho;  Nebraska -7.5 vs. Missouri

Steelers-Saints Halloween Showdown

*With the Steelers holding a roster spot open for the injured Aaron Smith expect them to cut a player Saturday morning in order to active DL Steve McLendon from the practice squad. With so many rookies playing well on special teams I'm guessing Anthony Madison will be the guy. It will be interesting to see if they re-sign Madison on Monday and move McLendon back to the practice squad and continue that practice in the weeks ahead. Either way Smith's injury could end up costing Madison a lot of jack.

*Trai Essex was back at practice Thursday and will return as the starting right guard in place of Doug Legursky.

*Lamar Woodley and Flozell Adams looked relatively full speed on Thursday and I expect them to go Sunday.

*I don't know if Brett Keisel had a setback or if the Steelers were too optimistic early in the week, but he didn't practice Thursday or Friday and will not dress for the second straight week.

*Saints starting cornerbacks Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter both returned to practice in a limited fashion on Thursday. This will be one of the keys to the game. Porter hasn't played since week four because of a sprained MCL. The Saints secondary has held up without these two, but they've really only faced one solid passing offense this season. Look for Arians to test the Saints secondary early and often.

*Neither Saints RB Reggie Bush nor RB Pierre Thomas is expected to play Sunday night. Bush is still recovering from a broken leg and Thomas is in a walking boot while he recovers from a sprained left ankle.

*The Browns hit on three gadet plays last week against the Saints. Those three plays accounted for 143 of 210 total yards for the Browns. Drew Brees threw four interceptions, two for touchdowns.

*The Saints have eight receivers with ten or more receptions. They like to run a lot of seam routes and crossing routes and are one of the best teams in the league in YAC. The Steelers have brought less pressure the last few weeks. I expect that to change this week with Dick Lebeau showing Brees a lot of different looks and bringing pressure from a variety of areas.

*2009 first round draft pick Ziggy Hood is likely to get his first career start this week in place of Smith at left DE.

*Saints safety Darren Sharper was a teammate of Steelers coach Mike Tomlin at William and Mary.

MY TAKE: The Steelers will be the more physical team on both sides of the ball, but this game will hinge on the pressure the Steeler defense is able to bring on Saints quarterback Drew Brees. I expect the Steelers offense to move the ball effectively and if they are able to continue to score touchdowns they will have a good chance to win. Look for this game to play out much like last week's game against Miami. The Saints will get their yards through the air, but if the defense can hurry Brees, jam the crossing routes and continue to play stout against the run this is a winnable game. I see the Steelers holding the Saints to 20 and that should be enough. Pittsburgh 24 New Orleans 20.

The Penguins After Ten Games: Part II, The Defenseman

This offseason general manager Ray Shero had quite a few personnel decisions to make. The big one hinged around star defenseman Sergei Gonchar who had just completed the final season of a five-year, $25 million contract. After a tough first season Gonch more than lived up to his contract, helping the Penguins to two Stanley Cup Finals. Negotiations were protracted, but at the end of the day Gonchar's desire for a third year proved insurmountable for the Penguins and on July 1st the thirty-six year old defenseman was the first free agent to change teams, inking a three-year, $16.5 million deal with the Ottawa Senators. With Justin Leopold (Buffalo), Mark Eaton (Islanders) and Jay McKee (currently out of the league) also leaving the Pens, Shero had work to do and he didn't waste any time. He signed both Paul Martin and Zybnek Michalek to big long-term deals. Here's a look at how those two and the rest of the defensive corps have done through the Penguins first ten games. (Part I is here.)

The 6'1", 200 lbs., left-hand shooting Paul Martin has stepped in seamlessly as part of one of Penguins' top two defensive pairings, generally with the right-handed shooting Kris Letang. Martin's slick stick-handling and great tape-to-tape break out passes are a perfect fit for Coach Dan Bylsma's system. While not overly physical in his own end, Martin's defensive skills are probably underrated. His great stick work and skating ability mean he is rarely out of position. I'm not ready to say Martin is better than Gonchar because of Gonch's big shot, but it's close and Martin has contributed seven points through ten games similar to Sarge's historical numbers as a Penguin. The early returns are very good although he's a -3 in his last two games. Grade: B+

Kris Letang appears to be having a break out year in this, his fourth full season in the league. He's third among all defensemen in points with nine and in +/- at +7. He has looked good quarterbacking the power play from the left point. He's always had a dangerous wrister and his slapshot seems improved. Letang has also looked very solid in his own end while logging more than twenty minutes of ice time a night. He's only been called for one minor penalty through ten games. He is developing into one of the best offensive d-men in the league and is under the Penguins control through 2014 season at a very reasonable $3.5 million/year. Grade: A

Brooks Orpik and Zybnek Michalek were supposed to be the Penguins shutdown defensive pairing but they've only been on the ice for two games together. Orpik is back and appears to have recovered from the abdominal injuries that have plagued him since the middle of last year. Unfortunately the Pens are 0-3-1 in his four games. Michalek is due back soon from a shoulder injury after only playing two-plus games to start the season. The Pens will be relying heavily on both these guys to contain the other team's top lines going forward and they will absolutely be a key to any playoff success the team has. Grade: Incomplete

Alex Goligoski is an American. Really. The twenty-five year old was born in Grand Rapids, MN (that's Minnesota, not Michigan) and that means four of the Pens top six d-men are Americans. I'm guessing it's the first time in Penguin history that has been the case. Like Letang, Gogo has had a great start to the season registering seven points and a +6 through ten games, while leading the Pens in ice time virtually every night.  Goligoski has also taken on a much bigger role on the power play and his skating ability and excellent shot make him a natural in that spot. Gogo isn't big, but like Letang he has taken advantage of Bylsma's system to move the puck quickly out of his own end. Grade: A

Ben Lovejoy, Deryk Engelland and Andrew Hutchinson have generally made up the team's third pairing. Both Lovejoy and Engelland have played nine games and are averaging about fifteen minutes of ice time a night. Both are stay at home defenseman who aren't expected to contribute a lot of points. Generally I think Lovejoy has been a small disappointment and Engelland has been a slight surprise. Hutchinson, a very savy depth signing by Shero in the offseason, played adequately in his five appearances before being sent back down this week. The biggest thing we have learned about these three in the first ten games is that only Lovejoy has a chance to be part of the Pens' plans next year and that is tenuous at best. At 26, he is the youngest, but he hasn't blossomed like the team had hoped. With Brian Strait, Carl Sneep and Robert Bortuzzo developing in Wilkes-Barre, and Simon Despres sure to be part of next year's team, Lovejoy and Engelland need to continue to do the job in their own end to keep their roster spots. They have been adequate thus far, but the Penguins have cheap young talent that will press them for playing time later in the year. Grade: Lovejoy C, Engelland B-, Hutchinson C

Overall the defense has played well. They have given up a few too many odd man rushes, but they have moved the puck well out of their own end and contributed in a big way in the offensive end. Having Michalek and Orpik back should add stability and give the group a real opportunity to mesh as we move into the heart of the season. A solid performance thus far.

Pens Unveil New Winter Classic Jerseys

I realize marketing is the name of the game, but I really don't know why the Penguins feel such a need to get away from the Baby Blues. Here is a look at the new jersey they will be wearing when they play the Caps in the Winter Classic on January 1st. It looks a little better as a full uniform as you can see in the picture above. The uniform will also be worn two other times this year, Feb 10 vs. Los Angeles and March 12 vs. Montreal.

The Penguins After Ten Games: Part I, The Goalies

The Penguins blew a 3-1 lead to the Tampa Bay Lightning last night and lost 5-3. After ten games they have a record of 5-4-1 and 11 points. Over the next three days I'll break down their performance through the first ten by position.

GOALTENDING:
You've heard me argue countless times that a goalie in hockey has more impact on a sporting event than any other player. The Penguins are exhibit A. They have had one goalie playing spectacularly well and one who has been bad. The problem is it's the cheap backup that's been great and the franchise goalie that has been borderline terrible.

Marc-Andre Fleury is making $5 million this year and is signed through 2014. He's 25, he's won a Stanley Cup and he has taken the Penguins to the finals another time. But, Fleury had a bad second half last year and was terrible in the second round playoff loss to the Canadiens. This year, believe it or not he's been worse. Of goalies who have started at least four games he ranks 34th out of 37 in goals against average at 3.41 and his save percentage of .861 is 36th. Fleury has given up at least three goals in each of his five starts, his record stands at 1-4 and he has given up a goal in the first six minutes of his last three starts, the first shot in his last two. More importantly, MAF has rarely come up with the big save, something he did repeatedly during the team's run to the Cup. While he hasn't been responsible for many of the goals he's given up, he isn't making any key saves at key moments and he's given up some soft ones, particularly in game two against Montreal, that have cost his team the game.

The season is too long and the Penguins have too much invested in Fleury to relegate him to the bench, but at the moment he hasn't earned his ice time. With 72 games left I have no problem with Bylsma sitting Fleury for an extended period, or at least until the other guy cools off.

The other guy is "backup" Brent Johnson. The Penguins signed Johnson before the 2009-10 season and he performed admirably filling in for Fleury last year. He appeared in 23 games and posted a 10-6-1 record with a 2.76 GAA and .906 save percentage. In the offseason the Penguins signed Johnson to a new, below-market two-year deal at $600,000/year. Johnson liked being in Pittsburgh and at age 33 liked the security of the two year deal. He knew his role, proved more than capable of playing well while only playing sporadically and was excellent in the locker room. It was a good fit for both sides.

At the moment Johnson's contract is proving to be the biggest bargain in hockey. In his five starts he's 4-0-1 with a 1.39 GAA (2nd in the league)  and a .951 save percentage (3rd). He has yet to give up more than two goals in any game and the only blemish on his record is a 1-0 overtime loss at St. Louis his last time out. Four of his five starts have come on the road and three of his seven goals against have come during the opposing team's power play.

The rap against Johnson is that he isn't an everyday goalie. He has really only been a number one in one of his eleven NHL seasons and that was back in 2001-2002 with the St. Louis Blues. That was also the only season he's appeared in more than 40 games. Johnson style is a little more upright than Fleury and at 6' 3" he covers a lot of the net. He squares up exceptionally well to the shooter and he rarely finds himself scrambling to get back into position as we have seen so often with MAF the past two years. He certainly has earned his ice time.

There is no question who the Penguins' better goalie is at the moment. The concern of the coaching staff and front office has to be how to get Fleury back up to the high level of play that he demonstrated two years ago. In the meantime it's time for him to take a back seat to one of the hottest goalies in the league. There is plenty of time to have Fleury work on his game and get him ready by the playoffs. In the meantime the Penguins owe it to Johnson and the eighteen skaters in front of him to put him out there starting tomorrow night at home against the Flyers. If Johnson and the Pens win that one Bylsma should bring him right back at Carolina Saturday night.

GRADE THROUGH 10 GAMES:
Marc-Andre Fleury: F
Brent Johnson: A