After the AFC Championship Game I can't take it any longer.
The NFL is a multi-billion dollar business that not only dominates the sporting/entertainment landscape in the US, but has also managed to weave itself into the very cultural fabric of American life. The lockout this past offseason damn near took on the air of a national crisis as the possibility of games being cancelled became real toward summer's end.
The League's 32 teams are run by head coaches who have reached the pinnacle of their profession. They are men who inevitably once played the sport and have now worked their way up the coaching ranks from assistant to coordinator to head coach. Qualifications for the position include leadership, talent evaluation, organizational skill and charisma. In today's 24/7 sports-crazed society NFL coaches are as famous as movie and rock stars.
The charge of an NFL coach, very simply, is to win games. In the course of playing those games the coach is expected to make a host of important, time-sensitive decisions that will further the organization's goals of wins, lead to championships and add revenue to the bottom line. This job description is not unlike a senior manager's role in any organization. The difference is an NFL coach makes his decisions on the most-public of stages, in front of millions watching on television ready to critique and second-guess his every move.
And every week we learn anew that most of these coaches aren't capable of consistently making good decisions.
Calling timeouts, managing the clock and effectively using challenges seems beyond the skill set of most head coaches. Today, even though virtually every head coach has ceded offensive and defensive play-calling to his coordinators and his major responsibility is to manage the game, few consistently do it well.
What other industry would allow senior managers to repeatedly fail when making decisions that could impact the bottom line by millions of dollars and do nothing about it? Welcome to today's NFL.
Coaches aren't trained through simulation, they don't have the proper support staff and they have too many time sensitive decisions to make at once. How much in Super Bowl revenue, merchandise sales, potential ticket price increases and general cache do you think the AFC Championship game loss cost the Baltimore Ravens? If they went on to win the Super Bowl this week, what would that be worth to the franchise? $50 million, $100 million, $200 million? It isn't going to happen and their head coach's decision-making is probably as singularly responsible as anything else.
Let's take a sequential look back at the critical decisions that were botched in the AFC title game between the Ravens and the Patriots. We'll eschew the play-calling mistakes which Bill Barnwell does an excellent job of reviewing, and focus primarily on game/clock management.
#1 Situation: New England ball 3-and-10 on Baltimore 17, 3:11 left 2nd Quarter. Score tied at 10.
Bill Belichick doesn't make many mistakes. It makes the ones he does make all the more surprising. He certainly isn't going to win any points for charisma or media relations, but his record speaks for itself. (Here is an insightful read discussing some of BB's tactical moves in the Pats-Denver divisional playoff game and here is a good take on what his mindset might be like when making decisions.) But the Hoodie missed one in a crucial moment at the end of the first half of the Championship Game.
With the scenario set above, Tom Brady threw a pass to the left sideline to Rob Gronkowski. Gronk caught the ball past the first down marker, inside the 10, but the officials ruled that he didn't get both feet down. The initial replay seemed to confirm that view, but a second replay showed the ball actually made contact with Gronk's hands while one foot was on the ground. He then clearly got his next foot down inbounds. At this point, how the refs might have ruled on a challenge is unclear. What the Pats should have done is not. Belichick had all three timeouts remaining, and that is the key.
Because the initial replay was inconclusive the Pats weren't sure whether to challenge. The play clock was ticking and Belichick quickly sent out the field goal team. They had to make a decision. Or did they? If there was any chance that play could have resulted in an overturned reception and first down, the Pats needed to challenge.
What should they have done?
Called timeout.
This would have allowed them to take a couple of minutes to get a better look at the replay and decided whether to challenge. Having two versus three timeouts remaining at that point wasn't nearly as important as figuring out whether they had a first down inside the ten which could mean four more points on the board. And calling timeout means a challenge is less likely to be wasted because it would have allowed a better assessment of the replay. In the first half, this was clearly the move to make.
Needless to say the Pats didn't call the timeout and took the three points. Opportunity missed.
#2 Situation: New England ball 1-and-10 on New England 11, 0:58 left 2nd Quarter. NE 13 Balt 10.
And from here on in it was the John Harbaugh show.
In this situation both teams had two timeouts left in the first half as New England had a first down deep in its own territory with under a minute to go. In a bit of a surprise the Patriots came out in the victory formation and took a knee on first down, knowing they would get the ball to start the second half.
I can make a pretty convincing argument that Harbaugh should have used a timeout right there with about 0:53 seconds left on the clock, thus forcing NE to make a play-calling decision. It was 2-and-11 on their own ten. I don't think there was any chance NE would throw the ball, so they probably kneel again. But really it didn't matter because Baltimore didn't have three timeouts, one play was going to get fully run off the clock. The Ravens decided to do nothing, Brady ran the play clock down to 0:01, snapped the ball and knelt again with about 0:14 left on the game clock.
And then the Ravens coaching staff went brain dead. There was 0:14 left in the first half. New England had the ball on its own 9 yard line facing a 3-and-11 and the Ravens had two timeouts left. How is it possible John Harbaugh didn't call a timeout?
The Patriots obviously weren't going to throw the ball and risk a sack or turnover in that situation. They either call a running play or more likely kneel a third time leaving at least 0:10 remaining on the clock after the Ravens use their final timeout. This forces the Patriots to punt from their own endzone. What can happen next? The opportunity for an all-out punt block, with a roughing the kicker penalty having zero consequence with the Patriots so deep in their own territory and so little time? A punt return setting up a field goal? A fair catch and hail mary? Just the week before we saw Eli Manning throw a hail mary into the end zone against the Packers with 0:06 left in the first half for a touchdown.
Harbaugh did nothing and the half ended. There is no rational explanation for the Ravens to go into the locker room with two timeouts in their pocket. None.
Of course if Baltimore does everything I suggested most likely nothing changes. But they left an opportunity on the table and who can know how much of a difference a possible 2, 3 or 7 points would have made.
Situation #3: Baltimore ball 3-and-1 on New England 14, 0:22 seconds left 4th Quarter. NE 23 Balt 20.
From here until the end of the game you can question a lot of the Ravens decisions. I'll abbreviate the recap because it's been discussed ad naseum, but again I will argue that their failure was due to the fact the coaching staff was not adequately stress-tested to deal with what was being thrown at them with the time constraints and pressure they faced.
Facing the scenario laid out above and having one timeout remaining I think Baltimore had to run the ball in hopes of getting a first down. If they succeed, they can use their final timeout and have about 0:16 seconds left to try to win the game (making the assumption manage the clock correctly, which this whole piece is arguing might not happen.) If they don't get the first down, they run the clock down to 0:03, call timeout, have plenty of time to set-up and kick the field goal to get to OT.
As you know, they threw the ball, didn't get the first down, had some confusion on the sideline, rushed in to kick the field goal, missed and went home with a timeout in their pocket.
----
Being an NFL head coach is obviously not an easy job. But while often great leaders of men, we see time and again that these coaches are not capable of making good in-game, time sensitive decisions.
Covering the Steelers I watched Mike Tomlin, widely viewed as one of the best head coaches in the game, coach 17 games this season--34 halves of football. I would submit that I watched him mismanage the last few minutes in at least 5-7 of those halves. If you consider the fact that no decisions needed to be made in about 15 of those halves, that means Tomlin mismanaged the end of half situation about 33% of the time he had to make decisions this season.
The Steelers won 12 games, but had to play a wildcard playoff game on the road and didn't get a first round bye. One more win and rather than being the 5th seed, they would have been the 1st seed in the AFC. This would have given them a bye week to get healty, the potential (and revenue) of playing two home playoff games and a better chance of reaching the Super Bowl. Maybe if Tomlin manages the clock perfectly every game everything ends up exactly the same. But maybe not. I'm sure all the teams that missed the playoffs by a game can look back and point to a situation that the coaching staff could have handle better in one of those losses.
The NFL is a big business worth billions of dollars. It's amazing how poorly this particular aspect of this business is managed. Two experienced, tremendously successful coaches will be leading their teams in the Super Bowl on Sunday. Let's see how their game management impacts the final outcome. Millions of dollars are on the line.
Thursday, February 2, 2012
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
Nails from the Toobox: A Potpourri of Sporting Thoughts & Links
ICE:
Pittsburgh 5 Toronto 4 (SO)
Last night's Penguins-Maple Leafs game in Pittsburgh was one of the more entertaining games you'll probably miss all year. (highlights from NHL.com) The Leafs had a 2-1 after two and scored two quick goals early in the third to go up 4-1. They hadn't lost a game when leading after two all season and a three goal lead suggested the Penguins win streak was going to crap out on seven.
Secondary scoring has been a problem for the home team all season and with the Malkin-Neal-Kunitz scoring troika giving them up rather than notching them the Pens chances looked slim even after Steve Sullivan ripped one past the Monster to make it 4-2. But when Joe Vitale snuck one in with five to go the CEC was buzzing and the fans were rewarded when, with the extra attacker on, the Evgeni Malkin had a slapper deflect off his shoulder into the net with 6.6 seconds left.
Overtime brought tons of excitement but no finisher as both goalies made fantastic saves. On to the shootout which has become just a formality for the Penguins these days. Malkin converted his fifth in a row (remember when he couldn't make one to save his life?) and Marc-Andre Fleury stoned the visitors to give the Pens their eighth straight win and their third SO win in their last four games.
Rarely is the goaltender the story on a night when he gives up four, but Fleury was unquestionably the best player on the ice and was deservedly rewarded the #1 star. He has cemented his status as an elite netminder and is playing, arguably, the best hockey of his career.
These two teams are back at it tonight. Toronto is a much-improved team with great speed in transition. They should have put this one away and I'm sure they'll be revved up and flying again tonight in front of their home fans. Find a television at 7:30 if you can.
Sidney Crosby Update
Yesterday Sidney Crosby and Pens GM Ray Shero sat down with the media and gave an update on Crosby's condition. Suffice it to say this story gets stranger by the day. Pens beat writer Rob Rossi has a good wrap up with quotes from the press conference.
It doesn't appear that their is a rift between Sid and the organization or with Sid and his teammates, both of which have been reported in the media. Most importantly it doesn't appear that Crosby suffered a fracture of his C-1 and C-2 vertebrae at any time. I would think the recently-disclosed soft-tissue neck injury, which may lead to concussion-like symptoms, is better than another actual concussion, but clearly the diagnosis is still a moving target and we'll have to wait and see where we go from here.
And if you think this is just a Pittsburgh story, don't be fooled. At this point it may now even be bigger in Canada. Today's cover of the Toronto Star.
Here is a timeline from Sid's initial concussion to the start of the season. Katie now has plenty of crazy stuff to update it from there.
COURT:
Pitt & the Tourney
Pitt won it's third game in a row beating West Virginia in Morgantown on Monday night to raise its record to 14-9 and 3-7 in the Big East. After the Panthers lost to DePaul on the road on Jan. 5 I wrote them off. They then proceeded to get punked by Rutgers at home and lose their next three before going on their current three game win streak. Odds are still long that they make the NCAAs, but there is one big asset in Pitt's corner at the moment--Tray Woodall and his injury.
On the court the redshirt junior point guard has proven to be indispensable to the Panthers success as evidenced by the fact that Woodall missed six of the eight games during the Panthers losing streak and in the two games he did play he didn't score a point. With Woodall back and healthy, the Panthers are a different team and Woodall's injury may be the key to them securing a tournament berth.
The NCAA Committee is known to look at how teams perform down the stretch and will also take into consideration injuries when determining bubble teams. The fact that Pitt's long losing streak essentially came with Woodall on the bench will be a big positive if they can keep winning. Their next five look winnable and then they finish their Big East schedule with games at Louisville and Connecticut among their last three contests. If Pitt can go 7-1 and finish 21-10 and 10-8 in the Big East they will have a real shot heading to the Big East tournament in Madison Square Garden. UConn's run to the title with a similar record last season will also work in the team's favor.
----
While Woodall has been a revelation, Big East preseason player of the year Ashton Gibbs has been a huge disappointment to many. Not me. Here is what I wrote in this blog entry in April:
NBA
The Sports Guy has had a long and incredibly successful run. A run that those blogging in our underwear in our parents' basements can only dream of. But, when you are around that long it is hard to keep the schtick fresh for a national audience. But he is at his best when writing about the NBA. This NBA season is a lot of things and he nails it in this three-part look at the first 1/3 of the season.
And if you somehow missed what many now consider one of the two or three best dunks ever, here is Blake on Perk.
GRIDIRON:
Penn St.
It's Letter of Intent Day for high school seniors. That is a sporting "event" that isn't on my radar, but it's a national holiday for many college football fans. I don't think this headline is fair, but man, Penn St. doesn't need publicity like this. I think preparing for the Super Bowl and getting back to the job on Monday is a reasonable excuse. I'd like my head coach to have that going for him.
Super Bowl
I'll try to get some more thoughts up later in the week, but one quick thought on Pats TE Rob Gronkowski and his high ankle sprain. Center Maurkice Pouncey of the Steelers had a similar injury leading into last year's Super Bowl. He insisted right up to the day before the game that he would play, but it has come out that he and the Steelers knew all along he had no chance of being ready.
Gronkowski's situation is obviously not exactly similar. But, he is certainly not going to be 100% if he is able to go and the Giants should make sure that every time he is on the field they have a defensive player lined up over top of him and they make it difficult for him to get off the line of scrimmage. This injury is the most important storyline leading into the game.
DIAMOND:
Pirates Rotation
About three weeks until pitchers and catchers report for spring training. I'll have a lot to say about the Pirates off-season in the weeks to come, but this caught my eye yesterday. Jason Martinez of @mlbdepthcharts tweeted his updated Houston Astros starting rotation after the signing of 800-year old Livan Hernandez. I felt compelled to ask whether fans thought that rotation was better than the Pirates projected rotation for 2012. Not a good sign.
Pittsburgh 5 Toronto 4 (SO)
Last night's Penguins-Maple Leafs game in Pittsburgh was one of the more entertaining games you'll probably miss all year. (highlights from NHL.com) The Leafs had a 2-1 after two and scored two quick goals early in the third to go up 4-1. They hadn't lost a game when leading after two all season and a three goal lead suggested the Penguins win streak was going to crap out on seven.
Secondary scoring has been a problem for the home team all season and with the Malkin-Neal-Kunitz scoring troika giving them up rather than notching them the Pens chances looked slim even after Steve Sullivan ripped one past the Monster to make it 4-2. But when Joe Vitale snuck one in with five to go the CEC was buzzing and the fans were rewarded when, with the extra attacker on, the Evgeni Malkin had a slapper deflect off his shoulder into the net with 6.6 seconds left.
Overtime brought tons of excitement but no finisher as both goalies made fantastic saves. On to the shootout which has become just a formality for the Penguins these days. Malkin converted his fifth in a row (remember when he couldn't make one to save his life?) and Marc-Andre Fleury stoned the visitors to give the Pens their eighth straight win and their third SO win in their last four games.
Rarely is the goaltender the story on a night when he gives up four, but Fleury was unquestionably the best player on the ice and was deservedly rewarded the #1 star. He has cemented his status as an elite netminder and is playing, arguably, the best hockey of his career.
These two teams are back at it tonight. Toronto is a much-improved team with great speed in transition. They should have put this one away and I'm sure they'll be revved up and flying again tonight in front of their home fans. Find a television at 7:30 if you can.
Sidney Crosby Update
Yesterday Sidney Crosby and Pens GM Ray Shero sat down with the media and gave an update on Crosby's condition. Suffice it to say this story gets stranger by the day. Pens beat writer Rob Rossi has a good wrap up with quotes from the press conference.
It doesn't appear that their is a rift between Sid and the organization or with Sid and his teammates, both of which have been reported in the media. Most importantly it doesn't appear that Crosby suffered a fracture of his C-1 and C-2 vertebrae at any time. I would think the recently-disclosed soft-tissue neck injury, which may lead to concussion-like symptoms, is better than another actual concussion, but clearly the diagnosis is still a moving target and we'll have to wait and see where we go from here.
And if you think this is just a Pittsburgh story, don't be fooled. At this point it may now even be bigger in Canada. Today's cover of the Toronto Star.
Here is a timeline from Sid's initial concussion to the start of the season. Katie now has plenty of crazy stuff to update it from there.
COURT:
Pitt & the Tourney
Pitt won it's third game in a row beating West Virginia in Morgantown on Monday night to raise its record to 14-9 and 3-7 in the Big East. After the Panthers lost to DePaul on the road on Jan. 5 I wrote them off. They then proceeded to get punked by Rutgers at home and lose their next three before going on their current three game win streak. Odds are still long that they make the NCAAs, but there is one big asset in Pitt's corner at the moment--Tray Woodall and his injury.
On the court the redshirt junior point guard has proven to be indispensable to the Panthers success as evidenced by the fact that Woodall missed six of the eight games during the Panthers losing streak and in the two games he did play he didn't score a point. With Woodall back and healthy, the Panthers are a different team and Woodall's injury may be the key to them securing a tournament berth.
The NCAA Committee is known to look at how teams perform down the stretch and will also take into consideration injuries when determining bubble teams. The fact that Pitt's long losing streak essentially came with Woodall on the bench will be a big positive if they can keep winning. Their next five look winnable and then they finish their Big East schedule with games at Louisville and Connecticut among their last three contests. If Pitt can go 7-1 and finish 21-10 and 10-8 in the Big East they will have a real shot heading to the Big East tournament in Madison Square Garden. UConn's run to the title with a similar record last season will also work in the team's favor.
----
While Woodall has been a revelation, Big East preseason player of the year Ashton Gibbs has been a huge disappointment to many. Not me. Here is what I wrote in this blog entry in April:
If Pitt junior Ashton Gibbs stays in the NBA draft it will be the dumbest decision in a long time. He can't create his own shot. He isn't quick enough and doesn't have a good enough handle to play the one. He isn't big enough to play the two. If he stays in, I hope he enjoys his time in Europe.If Gibbs is the third best player on a college team, that's a damn good team. If he is the go-to guy...well, I think this season has answered it for everyone.
NBA
The Sports Guy has had a long and incredibly successful run. A run that those blogging in our underwear in our parents' basements can only dream of. But, when you are around that long it is hard to keep the schtick fresh for a national audience. But he is at his best when writing about the NBA. This NBA season is a lot of things and he nails it in this three-part look at the first 1/3 of the season.
And if you somehow missed what many now consider one of the two or three best dunks ever, here is Blake on Perk.
GRIDIRON:
Penn St.
It's Letter of Intent Day for high school seniors. That is a sporting "event" that isn't on my radar, but it's a national holiday for many college football fans. I don't think this headline is fair, but man, Penn St. doesn't need publicity like this. I think preparing for the Super Bowl and getting back to the job on Monday is a reasonable excuse. I'd like my head coach to have that going for him.
Super Bowl
I'll try to get some more thoughts up later in the week, but one quick thought on Pats TE Rob Gronkowski and his high ankle sprain. Center Maurkice Pouncey of the Steelers had a similar injury leading into last year's Super Bowl. He insisted right up to the day before the game that he would play, but it has come out that he and the Steelers knew all along he had no chance of being ready.
Gronkowski's situation is obviously not exactly similar. But, he is certainly not going to be 100% if he is able to go and the Giants should make sure that every time he is on the field they have a defensive player lined up over top of him and they make it difficult for him to get off the line of scrimmage. This injury is the most important storyline leading into the game.
DIAMOND:
Pirates Rotation
About three weeks until pitchers and catchers report for spring training. I'll have a lot to say about the Pirates off-season in the weeks to come, but this caught my eye yesterday. Jason Martinez of @mlbdepthcharts tweeted his updated Houston Astros starting rotation after the signing of 800-year old Livan Hernandez. I felt compelled to ask whether fans thought that rotation was better than the Pirates projected rotation for 2012. Not a good sign.
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Sid's Back
I was in attendance. December 27, 2000. The Civic Arena. Mario returned. He scored, helped on two others and the Penguins rolled the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-0. I remember having tears in my eyes when Mario hit the ice. That night epitomized the reason I attend sporting events. It sounds silly to call it magical, but that's the best word to describe it, for me.
I was there last night. The Consol Energy Center. Sid returned. Same script, except Sid scored two to Mario's one, while assisting on two more and the Penguins rolled the New York Islanders by the identical 5-0 score. It was everything that everyone there hoped it would be and more.* A magical night.
*Except, of course, for the Islanders and the poor kid making his NHL debut in the nets. Head coach Jack Capuano certainly didn't do Anders Nilsson any favors. Let's hope for his sake that isn't the most memorable game of his career.
A lot has been written about the game. The highlights are all over the news. Here is his first goal. It doesn't give you a good view of the expletive joy that Sid shares after roofing the backhander, but it captures the moment pretty well. What won't make the story but is in the highlight is Sid creating the turnover deep in his own end that eventually led to the goal. That is Sidney Crosby.
I haven't ever broken a story out of the archives, but I figured today, this one was worth re-posting. If you are a Sid fan, definitely check out some of the highlight that are linked in the piece. Well worth your time.
Familiarity is awe's nemesis.
We see something often enough, it loses its magic. When we can no longer be shocked, awe gets locked back in the safe and on we move in search of something else that might line up the tumblers and open the vault once again.
On December 28, 2010 the day I wrote this story, we had become all too familiar with the story of Sidney Crosby.
At 14 he was already a nationally known figure across Canada. At 16 he represented his country in the World Juniors. At 17 he was the first pick in the 2005 NHL Entry Draft.
There was nothing new here.
In his first year he was the youngest player in NHL history to score 100 points. The next, at 19, he became the youngest to win the Art Ross Trophy and the first teenager since Wayne Gretzky to lead the league in scoring.
You knew how it went.
At the end of that second season he was named team captain, after turning it down mid-season, again the youngest in league history. He won the Hart Memorial Trophy (MVP) and Lester B. Pearson Award (players' MVP) and became the youngest ever named NHL First Team All-Star.
The accomplishments were so many, they started to blur.
The third year brought his only significant injury, but also his first Stanley Cup Final and a tie for the playoff scoring lead. The next, he became the youngest captain to hoist Lord Stanley's Cup.
We had even started to gloss over some of it.
In his fifth he won the Rocket Richard Trophy, leading the league in goals scored for the first time. He won the Mark Messier Leadership Award for setting a positive example on and off the ice. During a break in the season he was chosen to be a member of the Canadian Olympic team, an alternate captain. In the second game he scored the game winning goal in a shootout. In the gold medal game he again netted the game winner. Against the United States. In overtime.
This is his sixth season.
He has a 22 game scoring streak, tied for the longest since the end of the lockout. He's on pace to score more than 60 goals. His team sits second in the league in points. If they named an MVP at the half way point in the season, the vote would be unanimous.
That's the story.
It's one with which we have become familiar, but it doesn't paint a picture.
Sidney Crosby is in the details.
We know the foundation for the numbers and awards is his legendary work ethic. There is always room for improvement in his game. Each off-season he focuses on a particular facet. One summer, skating--now few are better. Another, faceoffs--has become one of the best. Last year, scoring goals--led the league. This off-season, unpredictability--first in goals, second in assists.
His career arc spans a handful more than 400 regular season games. I've seen most of them. I've seen his game and personality develop. From entering the league and earning a well-deserved reputation as a whiner and, less-deserved, a diver to skating through a season where he has pushed himself to the top of the heap, unquestionably the best player in hockey, playing the best hockey of his life.
I've seen the blind passes, the unbelievable hands, the amazing goals and even the calculated fights. But these last 25 games have been different. This video shows his natural hat trick against Atlanta. As I wrote here, the goals showed off Sid's amazing arsenal, including the best tip you may ever see:
This assist against New Jersey, after receiving a hard pass in his skates, is ridiculously good:
But, it's more than skill. Earlier in the week, from NHL.com Crosby, among the league leaders in faceoff percentage, took advantage of the fact that Vernon Fiddler was kicked out of the right faceoff circle in the Phoenix zone for dropping his stick too early. Crosby duped the less-experienced Lauri Korpikoski, slid the puck forward, lunged and immediately fed a wide-open Malkin...
who buried it.
With familiarity, awe gets discarded.
There are other awards, there is a biography. That he's 23, bears repeating. But, don't ever get used to the level of hockey that Sidney Crosby is playing because you just never know how long it will last.
I was planning to publish this a few days after the Winter Classic. I was waiting to see if Crosby's scoring streak reached 30. It didn't. And then he didn't play again.
Hopefully Sidney Crosby comes back this fall and we see this all again. Again we get to be in awe of his talent. Maybe his missing the second half of the season will make us appreciate him even more, knowing a bad hit could end his career. I sure hope that never happens. I feel like we missed a lot of magic these past five months. I want to be awed again.
Last night, I was.
I was there last night. The Consol Energy Center. Sid returned. Same script, except Sid scored two to Mario's one, while assisting on two more and the Penguins rolled the New York Islanders by the identical 5-0 score. It was everything that everyone there hoped it would be and more.* A magical night.
*Except, of course, for the Islanders and the poor kid making his NHL debut in the nets. Head coach Jack Capuano certainly didn't do Anders Nilsson any favors. Let's hope for his sake that isn't the most memorable game of his career.
A lot has been written about the game. The highlights are all over the news. Here is his first goal. It doesn't give you a good view of the expletive joy that Sid shares after roofing the backhander, but it captures the moment pretty well. What won't make the story but is in the highlight is Sid creating the turnover deep in his own end that eventually led to the goal. That is Sidney Crosby.
I haven't ever broken a story out of the archives, but I figured today, this one was worth re-posting. If you are a Sid fan, definitely check out some of the highlight that are linked in the piece. Well worth your time.
Sidney Crosby: What We Saw, What We Missed (5/31/2011)
Familiarity is awe's nemesis.
We see something often enough, it loses its magic. When we can no longer be shocked, awe gets locked back in the safe and on we move in search of something else that might line up the tumblers and open the vault once again.
On December 28, 2010 the day I wrote this story, we had become all too familiar with the story of Sidney Crosby.
At 14 he was already a nationally known figure across Canada. At 16 he represented his country in the World Juniors. At 17 he was the first pick in the 2005 NHL Entry Draft.
There was nothing new here.
In his first year he was the youngest player in NHL history to score 100 points. The next, at 19, he became the youngest to win the Art Ross Trophy and the first teenager since Wayne Gretzky to lead the league in scoring.
You knew how it went.
At the end of that second season he was named team captain, after turning it down mid-season, again the youngest in league history. He won the Hart Memorial Trophy (MVP) and Lester B. Pearson Award (players' MVP) and became the youngest ever named NHL First Team All-Star.
The accomplishments were so many, they started to blur.
The third year brought his only significant injury, but also his first Stanley Cup Final and a tie for the playoff scoring lead. The next, he became the youngest captain to hoist Lord Stanley's Cup.
We had even started to gloss over some of it.
In his fifth he won the Rocket Richard Trophy, leading the league in goals scored for the first time. He won the Mark Messier Leadership Award for setting a positive example on and off the ice. During a break in the season he was chosen to be a member of the Canadian Olympic team, an alternate captain. In the second game he scored the game winning goal in a shootout. In the gold medal game he again netted the game winner. Against the United States. In overtime.
This is his sixth season.
He has a 22 game scoring streak, tied for the longest since the end of the lockout. He's on pace to score more than 60 goals. His team sits second in the league in points. If they named an MVP at the half way point in the season, the vote would be unanimous.
That's the story.
It's one with which we have become familiar, but it doesn't paint a picture.
Sidney Crosby is in the details.
We know the foundation for the numbers and awards is his legendary work ethic. There is always room for improvement in his game. Each off-season he focuses on a particular facet. One summer, skating--now few are better. Another, faceoffs--has become one of the best. Last year, scoring goals--led the league. This off-season, unpredictability--first in goals, second in assists.
His career arc spans a handful more than 400 regular season games. I've seen most of them. I've seen his game and personality develop. From entering the league and earning a well-deserved reputation as a whiner and, less-deserved, a diver to skating through a season where he has pushed himself to the top of the heap, unquestionably the best player in hockey, playing the best hockey of his life.
I've seen the blind passes, the unbelievable hands, the amazing goals and even the calculated fights. But these last 25 games have been different. This video shows his natural hat trick against Atlanta. As I wrote here, the goals showed off Sid's amazing arsenal, including the best tip you may ever see:
This assist against New Jersey, after receiving a hard pass in his skates, is ridiculously good:
But, it's more than skill. Earlier in the week, from NHL.com Crosby, among the league leaders in faceoff percentage, took advantage of the fact that Vernon Fiddler was kicked out of the right faceoff circle in the Phoenix zone for dropping his stick too early. Crosby duped the less-experienced Lauri Korpikoski, slid the puck forward, lunged and immediately fed a wide-open Malkin...
who buried it.
With familiarity, awe gets discarded.
There are other awards, there is a biography. That he's 23, bears repeating. But, don't ever get used to the level of hockey that Sidney Crosby is playing because you just never know how long it will last.
I was planning to publish this a few days after the Winter Classic. I was waiting to see if Crosby's scoring streak reached 30. It didn't. And then he didn't play again.
Hopefully Sidney Crosby comes back this fall and we see this all again. Again we get to be in awe of his talent. Maybe his missing the second half of the season will make us appreciate him even more, knowing a bad hit could end his career. I sure hope that never happens. I feel like we missed a lot of magic these past five months. I want to be awed again.
Last night, I was.
Monday, August 22, 2011
Back Up And Running & A Programming Note
I have taken a bit of a hiatus from the blog this summer because of my duties covering the Pirates. As most of you know my baseball writing is usually posted here and here because it is often pretty detailed and better suited for the hardcore baseball fans.
Now, with the Pirates season winding down, it's again time to crank up the blog. Season 2 of The Terrible Podcast is in full swing and we will have another episode up today with Steelers beat writer Ed Bouchette as our guest. There is a widget on the sidebar of the front page that allows you to access all the podcasts, but I will also start posting them again so they are sent out in the daily email. With the season opener only a few weeks away there is plenty to talk about.
While the local sports teams will always be a staple of The Hammer Speaks, there should be plenty of topics of broader interest that will hopefully keep you entertained going forward. I also will attempt to do a better job of linking to articles and topics that I find interesting. Hopefully you will too. This may mean more posts, but it should also give you access to some content that you might not normally come across.
You can subscribe to the blog by posting your email in the box on the front page. As a subscriber you will recieve a daily email once a day, but only if there is new content on the blog that day. It is generated automatically and sent out around 1 pm EST.
Please feel free to add any thoughts, comments or criticisms you have or things you might like to see covered or discussed. Thanks for reading and for your support.
------------
Starting tomorrow, Tuesday August 23, I will be hosting Stan Savaran's Show on 970 ESPN Pittsburgh from 10-Noon for the rest of the week. You can listen here. If you want to get involved the number is 1-412-922-2874.
You can follow me on Twitter @hammerspeaks and @DTonPirates.
Now, with the Pirates season winding down, it's again time to crank up the blog. Season 2 of The Terrible Podcast is in full swing and we will have another episode up today with Steelers beat writer Ed Bouchette as our guest. There is a widget on the sidebar of the front page that allows you to access all the podcasts, but I will also start posting them again so they are sent out in the daily email. With the season opener only a few weeks away there is plenty to talk about.
While the local sports teams will always be a staple of The Hammer Speaks, there should be plenty of topics of broader interest that will hopefully keep you entertained going forward. I also will attempt to do a better job of linking to articles and topics that I find interesting. Hopefully you will too. This may mean more posts, but it should also give you access to some content that you might not normally come across.
You can subscribe to the blog by posting your email in the box on the front page. As a subscriber you will recieve a daily email once a day, but only if there is new content on the blog that day. It is generated automatically and sent out around 1 pm EST.
Please feel free to add any thoughts, comments or criticisms you have or things you might like to see covered or discussed. Thanks for reading and for your support.
------------
Starting tomorrow, Tuesday August 23, I will be hosting Stan Savaran's Show on 970 ESPN Pittsburgh from 10-Noon for the rest of the week. You can listen here. If you want to get involved the number is 1-412-922-2874.
You can follow me on Twitter @hammerspeaks and @DTonPirates.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
The Terrible Podcast - Episode 66, Football on the Horizon
I'm introducing a new format for all the episodes of The Terrible Podcast. There is now a widget on the sidebar on the right which will allow you to see and play any episode. "Playlist" will list all the episodes and "Details" will give you a couple of paragraphs describing the content. The 66th and final episode of Season 1 was just added. Season 2 will get underway as soon as the CBA is signed, sealed and delivered. Thanks for listening.
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In Episode 66 of The Terrible Podcast Dave and I (hopefully) close the books on Season 1. If the CBA gets signed, sealed and delivered we will resume our in-season schedule with three episodes a week beginning next week with Episode 1 of Season 2. We'll have to figure out some fancy notation for that, something like 2:1 or 1:2 to go with our fancy logo.
In this episode we start with the latest updates on the labor situation. We have stayed away from the nuts & bolts so far because it was all speculation, but now the agreement is really taking shape and we discuss some of the important topics.
I weigh in with my thoughts on both the James Harrison and Hines Ward situations and then we get into the salary cap issues that Dave has written about in great detail on SteelersDepot.com. We also look at how the timeline will play out from here to the regular season if an agreement is reached in the next few days.
We wrap with a look at Dennis Dixon and whether he might be an attractive tender candidate for another team and answer a listener's question about the roles of Limas Sweed and Jonathan Dwyer.
We are revved up and ready to go. Hopefully we can get this CBA behind us and start ripping episodes for The Terrible Podcast Season 2 starting next week. Thanks for all the great support. Real Steelers football looks to be right around the corner.
--------
In Episode 66 of The Terrible Podcast Dave and I (hopefully) close the books on Season 1. If the CBA gets signed, sealed and delivered we will resume our in-season schedule with three episodes a week beginning next week with Episode 1 of Season 2. We'll have to figure out some fancy notation for that, something like 2:1 or 1:2 to go with our fancy logo.
In this episode we start with the latest updates on the labor situation. We have stayed away from the nuts & bolts so far because it was all speculation, but now the agreement is really taking shape and we discuss some of the important topics.
I weigh in with my thoughts on both the James Harrison and Hines Ward situations and then we get into the salary cap issues that Dave has written about in great detail on SteelersDepot.com. We also look at how the timeline will play out from here to the regular season if an agreement is reached in the next few days.
We wrap with a look at Dennis Dixon and whether he might be an attractive tender candidate for another team and answer a listener's question about the roles of Limas Sweed and Jonathan Dwyer.
We are revved up and ready to go. Hopefully we can get this CBA behind us and start ripping episodes for The Terrible Podcast Season 2 starting next week. Thanks for all the great support. Real Steelers football looks to be right around the corner.
Monday, July 18, 2011
An Illusion or One of the Best in Baseball? A Look at Jeff Karstens
One of the many appealing aspects of the game of baseball is its rich statistical record. By looking at a box score a fan can recreate what happened over the course of a game without having seen it. By looking at seasons of data, players from different eras can be compared and bar stool debates become enlivened.
Over the last thirty years, through the development of sabermetrics, our understanding of the statistical record of baseball has been advanced and the analysis has become more granular. Pitcher wins and RBI are less meaningful numbers, while FIP and BABip, among others, have been added to the lexicon and elevated in status.
With the reams of available data and the development of these new statistics, the predictive nature of player analysis has become much more refined. Now a variety of programs can, with some degree of accuracy, forecast each and every player's performance based on their past history and that of other similar players. Certainly there will be outliers, but in general these player forecasting models do a pretty accurate job of projecting performance.
All of which is a roundabout way of getting to Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Jeff Karstens. As Karstens rolled through the Houston Astros on his way to an 83-pitch, 5-hit shutout last night, a win that moved the Bucs into first place in the NL Central, the oft-seen debate again flared up on Twitter. Is Jeff Karstens really this good or is this just an incredible hot streak which too shall pass? The two positions are pretty clearly delineated:
Smoke & Mirrors:
ESPN.com baseball analyst Keith Law has become the evil personification of this position in the eyes of many Pirates fans. During last night's game Law tweeted this, this and this among other things.** Law's opinion is based on history and scouting. Certainly the 28-year old Karstens' major league performance coming into the season did not portend this type of success. In 50 starts and 89 total appearances he posted an ERA of 5.07, an ERA+ of 83, and a WHIP of 1.441. He had a K/9 of 4.5, not exactly Gibsonian, and a BB/9 of 2.8. Throw in his 12-27 W/L record and "Cy Young candidate" does not jump off the page.
**Law didn't endear himself to Pirates fans just before the all-star break either. When asked if the Pirates winning record was for real, he tweeted no, they were 38-40 against all teams not called the Astros. Fans rightly pointed out that he was cherry-picking his stats, ignoring the Pirates 8-4 combined record against the Phillies, Red Sox, Cards & Diamondbacks, all first place teams at the time.
Watch Him Pitch:
That is pretty much the best way to sum up the other point of view. Last night's game would be Exhibit A in the courtroom.
9 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K. 30 batters faced. 83 pitches-64 strikes, 8 Swinging Strikes
Advocates of this position argue Karstens has become a much better "pitcher." He has shown much better command and an ability to vary his pitches and pitch speed due to a new approach on the mound crafted with new pitching coach Ray Searage.
The Reality:
The great thing about statistics is first and foremost, before being predictive, they tell us what actually did happen. There is no room for debate here, so let's look at what Jeff Karstens has done thus far this year. His full player page is here.
When analyzing Karsten's numbers against the top 20 qualified National League pitchers based on ERA, we find some pretty interesting things. All twenty have made at least 16 starts and none more than 20. Kartens has made 16 and is the only one of the group to have appeared in relief, which he has done four times.
Of the group Karstens is 18th in IP, 18th in K/9, 20th in HR/9, 19th in HR/FB% and 20th in WAR.** His FIP-ERA is almost double any other pitcher on the list.
**Fangraphs has Karstens at a WAR value of 0.4 putting him ahead of only James McDonald among Pirates starters and 52 out of 60 qualified NL starters. B-R has him at a value of 2.5, first among Pirates starters and 17th in the NL.
On the flip side he is 3rd in ERA, 4th in WHIP, 1st in pitches/IP, 2nd in BB/9, 2nd in BABip and 1st in LOB%.
These numbers generally tell you everything you need to know about the debate. The Smoke and Mirrors camp points to the fact that Karstens doesn't strike anyone out, gives up tons of home runs and has been very lucky with an unsustainably low BABip and LOB% which are currently much better than league average. The argument says those numbers are due to revert and poof, the Karstens of old will reappear.
The Watch Him Pitch camp can point to Karstens pinpoint command as demonstrated by his amazingly low walk total, his low WHIP and the fact that he goes after hitters efficiently. They point to the fact that all his home runs allowed as a starter have been solo shots and batters are rarely squaring him up and making good contact. His LD% is a touch below league average and his HR/FB% should revert back toward the mean counteracting his BABip reverting the other way. His swinging strike % of 13% is just off the league average of 15% and is above his career average, while is K% is a career-best 14.2% and is a more reflective number than K/9 because he has faced so many fewer hitters.
Either way it is virtually impossible to argue that anyone has been better than Karstens since June 1. Since that time here are JK's numbers:
8 GS, 57.1 IP, 39 H, 7 BB 0.802 WHIP, 20 K, .554 OPS, 1.26 ERA, 5-0 W/L
While analysts and fans can point to numbers that may revert, past events don't change. This statistical record is in the books. It is what it is. And while some may not like how it was achieved or who it was achieved against** or that Karstens didn't strike out enough batters, I'm certain you won't find a pitcher who was better than Jeff Karstens the last six weeks. That's just fact.
**Detractors will point to the fact that three of Karsten's last six starts have come against the Astros one of the worst teams in baseball. While the Astros are bad, their lineup isn't that bad and as a team they have an OPS+ of 94, not much off the league average. Also, facing a team 3 times in 31 days generally works heavily in favor of the hitters, not the pitcher.
The $64,000 Question:
Karstens next three starts come against the Reds, Braves and Phillies, the last two on the road.
If you're are a Karstens fan, take heart in the fact that the Keith Law's of the world have been wrong before. An analyst that relies heavily on statistics and scouting reports is certainly likely to be right way more often than wrong, but it is very hard to ever believe in any player showing a dramatic change particularly later in his career. Law was spectacularly wrong on Jose Bautista, even at the start of this year, so it happens.
The reality is that few players do make a quantum leap later in their career and at 28 this would be a remarkable performance shift if Karstens were able to maintain it.
I've seen every game Karstens has pitched this year. As late as the beginning of June I was expecting and advocating for the Pirates to call up Brad Lincoln to take his spot in the rotation. Karstens inability to get deep in games and career track record were the reasons. Has my opinion changed? Absolutely. What I've seen on the mound is a different guy in terms of his command and pitch selection. While the comparisons to Greg Maddux sound silly, I can certainly see why somebody watching the last eight games would make them. Batters never seem to square up balls, he keeps hitters off-balance and his command is outstanding.
While it would be foolish to expect Karstens next 15 starts to be as good as his last eight, I do think Karstens is capable of continuing to pitch at a high level down the stretch. It's taken a long time for me to come around, but this is doesn't seem to be an illusion.
I'll just enjoy watching him take the ball every fifth day and see how it plays out. Maybe the Pirates have found themselves a pitching-version of Jose Bautista, and the rest of the league can kick themselves that they didn't pick him up off waivers when he was DFA'd off the 40-man roster less than two years ago. Maybe the baseball gods really are smiling on Pittsburgh for a change.
Over the last thirty years, through the development of sabermetrics, our understanding of the statistical record of baseball has been advanced and the analysis has become more granular. Pitcher wins and RBI are less meaningful numbers, while FIP and BABip, among others, have been added to the lexicon and elevated in status.
With the reams of available data and the development of these new statistics, the predictive nature of player analysis has become much more refined. Now a variety of programs can, with some degree of accuracy, forecast each and every player's performance based on their past history and that of other similar players. Certainly there will be outliers, but in general these player forecasting models do a pretty accurate job of projecting performance.
All of which is a roundabout way of getting to Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Jeff Karstens. As Karstens rolled through the Houston Astros on his way to an 83-pitch, 5-hit shutout last night, a win that moved the Bucs into first place in the NL Central, the oft-seen debate again flared up on Twitter. Is Jeff Karstens really this good or is this just an incredible hot streak which too shall pass? The two positions are pretty clearly delineated:
Smoke & Mirrors:
ESPN.com baseball analyst Keith Law has become the evil personification of this position in the eyes of many Pirates fans. During last night's game Law tweeted this, this and this among other things.** Law's opinion is based on history and scouting. Certainly the 28-year old Karstens' major league performance coming into the season did not portend this type of success. In 50 starts and 89 total appearances he posted an ERA of 5.07, an ERA+ of 83, and a WHIP of 1.441. He had a K/9 of 4.5, not exactly Gibsonian, and a BB/9 of 2.8. Throw in his 12-27 W/L record and "Cy Young candidate" does not jump off the page.
**Law didn't endear himself to Pirates fans just before the all-star break either. When asked if the Pirates winning record was for real, he tweeted no, they were 38-40 against all teams not called the Astros. Fans rightly pointed out that he was cherry-picking his stats, ignoring the Pirates 8-4 combined record against the Phillies, Red Sox, Cards & Diamondbacks, all first place teams at the time.
Watch Him Pitch:
That is pretty much the best way to sum up the other point of view. Last night's game would be Exhibit A in the courtroom.
9 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K. 30 batters faced. 83 pitches-64 strikes, 8 Swinging Strikes
Advocates of this position argue Karstens has become a much better "pitcher." He has shown much better command and an ability to vary his pitches and pitch speed due to a new approach on the mound crafted with new pitching coach Ray Searage.
The Reality:
The great thing about statistics is first and foremost, before being predictive, they tell us what actually did happen. There is no room for debate here, so let's look at what Jeff Karstens has done thus far this year. His full player page is here.
When analyzing Karsten's numbers against the top 20 qualified National League pitchers based on ERA, we find some pretty interesting things. All twenty have made at least 16 starts and none more than 20. Kartens has made 16 and is the only one of the group to have appeared in relief, which he has done four times.
Of the group Karstens is 18th in IP, 18th in K/9, 20th in HR/9, 19th in HR/FB% and 20th in WAR.** His FIP-ERA is almost double any other pitcher on the list.
**Fangraphs has Karstens at a WAR value of 0.4 putting him ahead of only James McDonald among Pirates starters and 52 out of 60 qualified NL starters. B-R has him at a value of 2.5, first among Pirates starters and 17th in the NL.
On the flip side he is 3rd in ERA, 4th in WHIP, 1st in pitches/IP, 2nd in BB/9, 2nd in BABip and 1st in LOB%.
These numbers generally tell you everything you need to know about the debate. The Smoke and Mirrors camp points to the fact that Karstens doesn't strike anyone out, gives up tons of home runs and has been very lucky with an unsustainably low BABip and LOB% which are currently much better than league average. The argument says those numbers are due to revert and poof, the Karstens of old will reappear.
The Watch Him Pitch camp can point to Karstens pinpoint command as demonstrated by his amazingly low walk total, his low WHIP and the fact that he goes after hitters efficiently. They point to the fact that all his home runs allowed as a starter have been solo shots and batters are rarely squaring him up and making good contact. His LD% is a touch below league average and his HR/FB% should revert back toward the mean counteracting his BABip reverting the other way. His swinging strike % of 13% is just off the league average of 15% and is above his career average, while is K% is a career-best 14.2% and is a more reflective number than K/9 because he has faced so many fewer hitters.
Either way it is virtually impossible to argue that anyone has been better than Karstens since June 1. Since that time here are JK's numbers:
8 GS, 57.1 IP, 39 H, 7 BB 0.802 WHIP, 20 K, .554 OPS, 1.26 ERA, 5-0 W/L
While analysts and fans can point to numbers that may revert, past events don't change. This statistical record is in the books. It is what it is. And while some may not like how it was achieved or who it was achieved against** or that Karstens didn't strike out enough batters, I'm certain you won't find a pitcher who was better than Jeff Karstens the last six weeks. That's just fact.
**Detractors will point to the fact that three of Karsten's last six starts have come against the Astros one of the worst teams in baseball. While the Astros are bad, their lineup isn't that bad and as a team they have an OPS+ of 94, not much off the league average. Also, facing a team 3 times in 31 days generally works heavily in favor of the hitters, not the pitcher.
The $64,000 Question:
Karstens next three starts come against the Reds, Braves and Phillies, the last two on the road.
If you're are a Karstens fan, take heart in the fact that the Keith Law's of the world have been wrong before. An analyst that relies heavily on statistics and scouting reports is certainly likely to be right way more often than wrong, but it is very hard to ever believe in any player showing a dramatic change particularly later in his career. Law was spectacularly wrong on Jose Bautista, even at the start of this year, so it happens.
The reality is that few players do make a quantum leap later in their career and at 28 this would be a remarkable performance shift if Karstens were able to maintain it.
I've seen every game Karstens has pitched this year. As late as the beginning of June I was expecting and advocating for the Pirates to call up Brad Lincoln to take his spot in the rotation. Karstens inability to get deep in games and career track record were the reasons. Has my opinion changed? Absolutely. What I've seen on the mound is a different guy in terms of his command and pitch selection. While the comparisons to Greg Maddux sound silly, I can certainly see why somebody watching the last eight games would make them. Batters never seem to square up balls, he keeps hitters off-balance and his command is outstanding.
While it would be foolish to expect Karstens next 15 starts to be as good as his last eight, I do think Karstens is capable of continuing to pitch at a high level down the stretch. It's taken a long time for me to come around, but this is doesn't seem to be an illusion.
I'll just enjoy watching him take the ball every fifth day and see how it plays out. Maybe the Pirates have found themselves a pitching-version of Jose Bautista, and the rest of the league can kick themselves that they didn't pick him up off waivers when he was DFA'd off the 40-man roster less than two years ago. Maybe the baseball gods really are smiling on Pittsburgh for a change.
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
That Roster Crunch IS Coming...In July
A lot has been written about the roster crunch the Pirates are going to face in December when a large group of prospects will be have to be protected on the team's 40-man roster or become subject to the Rule 5 draft. It is a new problem, and a good one, as it shows the increasing organizational depth the Pirates have developed during Neal Huntington's stewardship.
But the Pirates face a much more immediate roster crunch, and it is also one the team hasn't faced in years. During the second half of July as many as seven veteran major leaguers are going to come off the team's disabled lists and be ready to return to the 25-man roster. Some decisions will be easy. Some will be very difficult. How those decisions play out will go a long way in determining how long the Pirates stay in the playoff picture.
THE FIRST ARRIVALS
It is possible, even perhaps likely, that Ronny Cedeno, Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Joe Beimel will be ready to be activated July 15, the first day back from the all-star break. The three position players made up 3/8 of the team's opening day lineup and Beimel is a veteran lefty who Clint Hurdle told me he is looking forward to having back. Let's look at each player and a possible corresponding move.
Ronny Cedeno (7-day DL July 2, Concussion): This should be pretty straightforward. Cedeno is the team's starting shortstop. While his bat has been erratic, his glove has been excellent and if others in the lineup continue to hit the team can play Ronny even if he slumps. It is worth nothing that Cedeno hit .455/.511/.576 in the 11 games before he was hurt.
Corresponding Move: Option Pedro Ciriaco. Ciriaco doesn't get to play when he's up. He's filling a bench role in case of emergency. He won't be needed.
Pedro Alvarez (15-day DL retroactive to May 20, Quadriceps strain): Again a straightforward move. Various people have been calling for the Pirates to go out and trade for a "bat". Here it is. Alvarez didn't hit the first six weeks of the season, but he has far more upside than anyone available on the trade market and at no cost. He will be plugged back into the starting role at third base and play virtually every day the first few weeks in order to give him ample opportunity to get comfortable. If he performs like he did in September of last year this team's playoff chances go up dramatically.
Corresponding Move: Option Josh Harrison. Harrison is a utility guy who plays hard, but he doesn't project to be much more due to a lack of patience at the plate and a lack of power.
Jose Tabata (15-day DL retroactive to June 27, Right Hand contusion): Tabata probably needed the time on the DL for a variety of reasons--wrist and hand problems, leg problems. While he has struggled since mid-April he will be plugged right back in as the starting left fielder. The more interesting question is where he hits in the lineup. My guess is he gets dropped to the #2 slot.
Corresponding Move: DFA Xavier Paul. This isn't an easy move, but it is the right one. Paul is a solid late inning defensive replacement, but with Presley on the roster his skills are duplicated. He has a .663 OPS and has struck out 29 times in 109 at bats. There is a chance he will get through waivers, but the Pirates could definitely lose him.
Joe Beimel (15-day DL, May 28, Left Elbow soreness): I asked Hurdle about "handedness" in the bullpen and if there were any advantages or disadvantages to having three lefties in the pen. He said management would have a discussion, but he left no doubt that Beimel would be part of it by saying he was looking forward to having Beimel's "veteran experience."
Corresponding Move: Option Chris Leroux. This one is open to debate. If the team wants to have a mop-up guy on the roster, Leroux is the right guy for that role and they could send down either Dan Moskos or Tony Watson, who started great, but has been a little shaky of late. It's just a question of carrying two or three lefties. The good thing here is all three pitchers can be optioned, so the team can mix and match as they move forward as needed.
THE SECOND WAVE
This group is harder to project because the updates have been less detailed in terms of rehab, so there is a good deal of speculation on my part.
Ryan Doumit (15-day DL, May 30, Left Ankle sprain/non-displaced fracture): The question here is just when will Doumit be ready. The initial target date was about two months and everything appears to generally be on schedule. Look for him to begin a rehab assignment around the end of the all-star break and, if all goes smoothly, join the team around August 1.
Corresponding Move: Option Eric Fryer. He gets to go back to Indy, play everyday and try to put himself in the mix for one of the jobs next year.
Steve Pearce (15-day DL, retroactive May 29, Right Calf strain): The classic reason you never ask a player to diagnose his own injury. When hurt Pearce said he would be out for a day. Instead, for the second year in a row, he has missed a great opportunity to get significant playing time. Pearce's righthanded bat and ability to play first base will be a welcome addition back to the ball club. I expect him back around the first of August as well.
Corresponding Move: This one gets harder and will depend on performance over the next month. If Cedeno is settled in and playing well, I would expect the Pirates to option Chase d'Arnaud. Two reasons for this 1.) d'Arnaud would benefit more from playing everyday in Indy. 2.) Rosters expand September 1 and d'Arnaud will be recalled at that time. Certainly the team could DFA Brandon Wood, but for the occasional spot start and pinch-hit role I'd rather keep Wood in the organization and move d'Arnaud.
Ross Ohlendorf (60-day DL, April 9, Right Shoulder strain): When Ohlendorf went down I suggested we may never see him pitch for the Pirates again. I still think that is possible, but he pitched a 45-pitch simulated game yesterday and may finally be making progress. I'm guessing Ohlendorf begins an official rehab assignment on August 1. A pitcher is allowed to rehab for 30 days. If Ohlendorf progresses and is needed he can be recalled earlier, otherwise he can be added to the roster when they expand September 1. I don't see him playing a significant role down the stretch. Brad Lincoln will be first in line to get any spot starts. If he comes back he will be a long man in the bullpen.
Corresponding Move: None needed.
OTHER POSSIBILITES:
Evan Meek: (15-DL, June 13, Right Shoulder tendenitis): Meek is a bit of a wildcard. He hasn't appeared healthy all year, but two months off may do the trick. I think he will be back with the club by September 1, but speculating on arm injuries from afar is pretty much guess work. Adding a healthy Meek to a bullpen of Hanrahan, Veras and Resop should make any Pirates fan smile.
Chris Snyder: (60-DL, June 9, Herniated Disc Lower Back): Anything the team gets from Snyder this season is gravy. Because he is a free agent after the year he does have a fair bit of incentive to get back and play before the season is over, but expecting him to do much more than join the expanded roster in September is probably unwise.
The Pirates will go into the all-star break on Sunday with 72 games remaining on the schedule. If they win one of their remaining four games they will have a winning record going into the break for the first time since 1992. If they win all four they will be eight games over .500 and stand a very good chance of being in first place in the National League Central.
44 different players have played for the Pirates this season which makes the team's mid-season success even more remarkable. The team is likely to add seven players to the 25-man roster over the course of the next 30 days which should greatly improve its depth. Questions about playing time in right and left field, first and third base will likely shake out based on performance over the next couple weeks. A roster crunch in late July. An interesting problem for the Pirates to have and certainly one they haven't seen in many years.
But the Pirates face a much more immediate roster crunch, and it is also one the team hasn't faced in years. During the second half of July as many as seven veteran major leaguers are going to come off the team's disabled lists and be ready to return to the 25-man roster. Some decisions will be easy. Some will be very difficult. How those decisions play out will go a long way in determining how long the Pirates stay in the playoff picture.
THE FIRST ARRIVALS
It is possible, even perhaps likely, that Ronny Cedeno, Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata and Joe Beimel will be ready to be activated July 15, the first day back from the all-star break. The three position players made up 3/8 of the team's opening day lineup and Beimel is a veteran lefty who Clint Hurdle told me he is looking forward to having back. Let's look at each player and a possible corresponding move.
Ronny Cedeno (7-day DL July 2, Concussion): This should be pretty straightforward. Cedeno is the team's starting shortstop. While his bat has been erratic, his glove has been excellent and if others in the lineup continue to hit the team can play Ronny even if he slumps. It is worth nothing that Cedeno hit .455/.511/.576 in the 11 games before he was hurt.
Corresponding Move: Option Pedro Ciriaco. Ciriaco doesn't get to play when he's up. He's filling a bench role in case of emergency. He won't be needed.
Pedro Alvarez (15-day DL retroactive to May 20, Quadriceps strain): Again a straightforward move. Various people have been calling for the Pirates to go out and trade for a "bat". Here it is. Alvarez didn't hit the first six weeks of the season, but he has far more upside than anyone available on the trade market and at no cost. He will be plugged back into the starting role at third base and play virtually every day the first few weeks in order to give him ample opportunity to get comfortable. If he performs like he did in September of last year this team's playoff chances go up dramatically.
Corresponding Move: Option Josh Harrison. Harrison is a utility guy who plays hard, but he doesn't project to be much more due to a lack of patience at the plate and a lack of power.
Jose Tabata (15-day DL retroactive to June 27, Right Hand contusion): Tabata probably needed the time on the DL for a variety of reasons--wrist and hand problems, leg problems. While he has struggled since mid-April he will be plugged right back in as the starting left fielder. The more interesting question is where he hits in the lineup. My guess is he gets dropped to the #2 slot.
Corresponding Move: DFA Xavier Paul. This isn't an easy move, but it is the right one. Paul is a solid late inning defensive replacement, but with Presley on the roster his skills are duplicated. He has a .663 OPS and has struck out 29 times in 109 at bats. There is a chance he will get through waivers, but the Pirates could definitely lose him.
Joe Beimel (15-day DL, May 28, Left Elbow soreness): I asked Hurdle about "handedness" in the bullpen and if there were any advantages or disadvantages to having three lefties in the pen. He said management would have a discussion, but he left no doubt that Beimel would be part of it by saying he was looking forward to having Beimel's "veteran experience."
Corresponding Move: Option Chris Leroux. This one is open to debate. If the team wants to have a mop-up guy on the roster, Leroux is the right guy for that role and they could send down either Dan Moskos or Tony Watson, who started great, but has been a little shaky of late. It's just a question of carrying two or three lefties. The good thing here is all three pitchers can be optioned, so the team can mix and match as they move forward as needed.
THE SECOND WAVE
This group is harder to project because the updates have been less detailed in terms of rehab, so there is a good deal of speculation on my part.
Ryan Doumit (15-day DL, May 30, Left Ankle sprain/non-displaced fracture): The question here is just when will Doumit be ready. The initial target date was about two months and everything appears to generally be on schedule. Look for him to begin a rehab assignment around the end of the all-star break and, if all goes smoothly, join the team around August 1.
Corresponding Move: Option Eric Fryer. He gets to go back to Indy, play everyday and try to put himself in the mix for one of the jobs next year.
Steve Pearce (15-day DL, retroactive May 29, Right Calf strain): The classic reason you never ask a player to diagnose his own injury. When hurt Pearce said he would be out for a day. Instead, for the second year in a row, he has missed a great opportunity to get significant playing time. Pearce's righthanded bat and ability to play first base will be a welcome addition back to the ball club. I expect him back around the first of August as well.
Corresponding Move: This one gets harder and will depend on performance over the next month. If Cedeno is settled in and playing well, I would expect the Pirates to option Chase d'Arnaud. Two reasons for this 1.) d'Arnaud would benefit more from playing everyday in Indy. 2.) Rosters expand September 1 and d'Arnaud will be recalled at that time. Certainly the team could DFA Brandon Wood, but for the occasional spot start and pinch-hit role I'd rather keep Wood in the organization and move d'Arnaud.
Ross Ohlendorf (60-day DL, April 9, Right Shoulder strain): When Ohlendorf went down I suggested we may never see him pitch for the Pirates again. I still think that is possible, but he pitched a 45-pitch simulated game yesterday and may finally be making progress. I'm guessing Ohlendorf begins an official rehab assignment on August 1. A pitcher is allowed to rehab for 30 days. If Ohlendorf progresses and is needed he can be recalled earlier, otherwise he can be added to the roster when they expand September 1. I don't see him playing a significant role down the stretch. Brad Lincoln will be first in line to get any spot starts. If he comes back he will be a long man in the bullpen.
Corresponding Move: None needed.
OTHER POSSIBILITES:
Evan Meek: (15-DL, June 13, Right Shoulder tendenitis): Meek is a bit of a wildcard. He hasn't appeared healthy all year, but two months off may do the trick. I think he will be back with the club by September 1, but speculating on arm injuries from afar is pretty much guess work. Adding a healthy Meek to a bullpen of Hanrahan, Veras and Resop should make any Pirates fan smile.
Chris Snyder: (60-DL, June 9, Herniated Disc Lower Back): Anything the team gets from Snyder this season is gravy. Because he is a free agent after the year he does have a fair bit of incentive to get back and play before the season is over, but expecting him to do much more than join the expanded roster in September is probably unwise.
The Pirates will go into the all-star break on Sunday with 72 games remaining on the schedule. If they win one of their remaining four games they will have a winning record going into the break for the first time since 1992. If they win all four they will be eight games over .500 and stand a very good chance of being in first place in the National League Central.
44 different players have played for the Pirates this season which makes the team's mid-season success even more remarkable. The team is likely to add seven players to the 25-man roster over the course of the next 30 days which should greatly improve its depth. Questions about playing time in right and left field, first and third base will likely shake out based on performance over the next couple weeks. A roster crunch in late July. An interesting problem for the Pirates to have and certainly one they haven't seen in many years.
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